Demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State group slogans as they wave the group's flags in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul, Iraq. Photo / AP
Demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State group slogans as they wave the group's flags in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul, Iraq. Photo / AP
As many as one million people could flee Mosul in northern Iraq if the Iraqi Army, backed by US air strikes, seeks to recapture the city this year, aid agencies have said. Those agencies are preparing by building up stocks of food at sites around Mosul to feed those forcedinto a mass exodus.
"We would expect hundreds of thousands of people from Mosul to leave, if not more," says Marwa Awad, speaking on behalf of the UN World Food Programme in Erbil, the Kurdish capital, 80km east of Mosul.
The present population of the city, captured by Isis (Islamic State) on June 10 last year, is believed to be about 1.5 million, the great majority of them Sunni Muslims.
The International Committee of the Red Cross has also issued a statement warning of a mass flight from Mosul, although without giving an estimate of the number likely to be affected. "The broadening of the conflict to populated areas along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers will create more humanitarian needs," the agency warns. "If major cities such as Mosul come under fire again, thousands more people will have to flee."
Syed Jaffer Hussain, the World Health Organisation's representative in Iraq, also says an attempt to recapture Mosul could lead to a mass refugee flight to Kurdistan. The exodus could begin as soon as Isis is unable to stop people leaving Mosul, and the US increases its air strikes.
There has been scepticism about the Iraqi Army's ability to retake the city, but even an attempt could trigger an exodus. The US Central Command has said an offensive would start in April or May and involve up to 25,000 Iraqi soldiers, although the exact date would depend on their degree of combat readiness.
