More killer heatwaves predicted

By STEVE CONNOR and TONY PATERSON in Berlin

Killer heatwaves will become more deadly as the population grows older and the climate becomes warmer, according to a major study on global disasters.

The developed world can expect to suffer the disastrous effects of even hotter summers than the one last year in Europe, which is estimated to have killed up to 35,000 people.

A report by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies warns that more extreme heatwaves can be added to the list of natural and man-made disasters that will affect the world in the coming decades.

Extreme summer temperatures in the developed world will be an extra problem affecting humanity in the 21st Century, said Markku Niskala, secretary-general of the federation.

"The face of disasters is changing. Soaring urban populations, environmental degradation, poverty and disease are compounding seasonal hazards such as droughts and floods.

"The developed world faces new threats, too. Five degrees more summer heat than usual triggered a disaster that shamed modern, wealthy societies across Europe in 2003.

"Up to 35,000 elderly and vulnerable people suffered silent, lonely deaths, abandoned by state welfare systems in retreat," he said.

Although heatwaves in wealthy, industrialised countries often kill thousands of people, they are rarely seen as natural disasters, according the Red Cross's World Disasters Report 2004.

"People in temperate countries find it hard to imagine heat as a disaster. With floods or hurricanes you can see the damage in a matter of minutes or hours.

"With heat, usually the worst to happen is that roads buckle, trains derail and livestock die."

The report comes as the environment takes centre stage in Europe when the Queen opens a high-profile conference in Berlin on Thursday which will set out an agenda for bilateral co-operation on climate change for the next decade.

The Berlin summit, which will be attended by German Environment Minister Jurgen Trittin, UK Foreign Minister Jack Straw, UK Environment Minister Margaret Beckett, and Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, will come a day after the US presidential elections and will prepare recommendations to British Prime Minister Tony Blair for Britain's Presidency of the G8 next year.

- INDEPENDENT