Montenegrin leader claims independence victory

PODGORICA, Serbia and Montenegro - Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic claimed victory for his independence drive in a referendum today to dissolve the country's union with Serbia.

"Tonight, with the majority decision by the citizens of Montenegro, the independence of the country has been renewed," he told supporters cheering the climax of his decade-long campaign to restore the independence Montenegro last enjoyed in 1918.

With the vote hovering close to the minimum needed to approve independence, and official results not due until later today, supporters of a continued union with Serbia refused to concede defeat.

If tiny Montenegro splits from Serbia it would be the final divorce among the six republics of the former Yugoslavia, which began to fall apart in bloodshed in the early 1990s.

Djukanovic's opponents had cried foul after unofficial results handed victory to the "Yes" camp, which triggered an immediate and explosive wave of celebrations they said they suspected were more staged than spontaneous.

Supporters of the union with Serbia said pollsters who projected the result had jumped the gun and asked who organised the instant rush into the streets of the capital Podgorica with flags, fireworks, and the occasional semi-automatic weapon.

Less than an hour after polls closed, the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CESID) said the "Yes" camp had scored 56.3 per cent of the vote, in a heavy turnout of 86 per cent.

But two hours later, CESID chief Zoran Lucic, looking uncomfortable, said that projection had shrunk to 55.3 per cent, just over the 55 per cent threshold set by the European Union for the independence drive to be accepted.

"We're on the verge of a major fraud," said Ivica Dacic, a nationalist Belgrade politician opposed to the dissolution of the union. Serbia has appealed to Montenegrins not to go.

But by the end of the night, CESID said the "Yes" campaign had secured 55.5 per cent and the figure was unlikely to change.

Awaiting official results, Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the "No" campaign, refused to concede defeat although he admitted trailing by nearly 10 per cent.

He accused the government of trying to pre-empt the result by calling supporters out in an "aggressive and arrogant" manoeuvre.

If upheld, as appeared likely, the result will dissolve a partnership with Serbia going back to 1918 in various forms. Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia all had to go to war to pull out of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s when Macedonia also quit.

However, if the vote for "Yes" were to slip below 55 per cent, the EU has warned unequivocally that there is no "grey area" open to negotiation. Less than 55 per cent means the independence drive has failed, Brussels has insisted.

The mountainous republic by the Adriatic Sea has about 650,000 people. Independence advocates say it has better chances of development and EU membership on its own than in a dysfunctional union with Serbia, population 7.5 million.

The two already have different laws and currencies and their joint parliament hardly ever meets.

Analysts say the union could hardly be any looser and there would be really nothing to renegotiate, short of divorce or a highly improbable renewal of vows.

- REUTERS