Migrants sleep on a footpath in Tapachula, Chiapas state, Mexico. US President Donald Trump has put on hold his plan to begin imposing tariffs on Mexico. Photos / AP
The deal to avert tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced with great fanfare yesterday consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the US over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.
The joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the "deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border."
But the Mexican Government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the Secretary of Homeland Security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican Secretary of the Interior, the officials said.
The centerpiece of Trump's deal was an expansion of a programme to allow asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed.
But that arrangement was first reached in December in a pair of painstakingly negotiated diplomatic notes that the two countries exchanged. Nielsen announced the Migrant Protection Protocols during a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee five days before Christmas.
And over the past week, negotiators failed to persuade Mexico to accept a "safe third country" treaty that would have given the US the legal ability to reject asylum-seekers if they had not sought refuge in Mexico first.
Trump hailed the agreement anyway today, writing on Twitter: "Everyone very excited about the new deal with Mexico!"
He thanked the President of Mexico for "working so long and hard" on a plan to reduce the surge of migration into the US.
It was unclear whether Trump believed that the agreement truly represented new and broader concessions, or whether the President understood the limits of the deal but accepted it as a face-saving way to escape from the political and economic consequences of imposing tariffs on Mexico, which he began threatening less than two weeks ago.
Having threatened Mexico with an escalating series of tariffs — starting at 5 per cent and growing to 25 per cent — the President faced enormous criticism from global leaders, business executives, Republican and Democratic lawmakers, and members of his own staff that he risked disrupting a critical marketplace.
After nine days of uncertainty, Trump backed down and accepted Mexico's promises.
Officials involved with talks said they began in earnest last Monday, when Kevin K. McAleenan, the acting Secretary of Homeland Security, met over dinner with Mexico's Foreign Minister. One senior government official, who was not authorised to speak publicly about the closed-door negotiations that took place over several days, insisted that the Mexicans agreed to move faster and more aggressively to deter migrants than they ever have before.
Their promise to deploy up to 6000 national guard troops was larger than their previous pledge. And the Mexican agreement to accelerate the Migrant Protection Protocols could help reduce what Trump calls "catch and release" of migrants in the US by giving the country a greater ability to make asylum-seekers wait in Mexico.
But there remains deep scepticism among some US officials — and even Trump himself — about whether the Mexicans have agreed to do enough, whether they will follow through on their promises, and whether, even if they do, that will reduce the flow of migrants at the southwestern border.
In addition, the Migrant Protection Protocols already face legal challenges by immigrant rights groups who say they violate the migrants' right to lawyers. A federal judge blocked the Trump Administration from implementing the plan, but an appeals court later said it could move forward while the legal challenge proceeds.
During a phone call yesterday when he was briefed on the agreement, Trump quizzed his lawyers, diplomats and immigration officials about whether they thought the deal would work. His aides said yes, but admitted that they were also realistic that the surge of immigration might continue.
"We'll see if it works," the President told them, approving the deal before sending out his tweet announcing it.
Today, Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, said the Government looked forward to reducing illegal immigration and making the border "strong and secure" by working with Mexico to fulfill the agreement.
So basically the U.S. undermined its credibility in all future trade negotiations in order to get Mexico to do a bunch of stuff it had already agreed to do.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) June 8, 2019
Via @shearm and @maggieNYThttps://t.co/blwnVGsTRG pic.twitter.com/BlW7eP4ejT
Trump's decision to use trade as a bludgeon against Mexico was driven in part by his obsession with stopping what he falsely calls an invasion of the country and in part by a desire to satisfy his core supporters, many of who have grown angry at his inability to build his promised border wall.
Many of his top advisers, including those who oversee his political and economic agendas, were opposed to the tariff threat. But the President's ire is regularly stoked by the daily reports he receives on how many migrants have crossed the border in the previous 24 hours.
Trump's top immigration officials had repeatedly warned the President that results from their work to curb the flow of migrants might not be evident until July, and urged patience.
But that effort became more difficult in May, when the numbers spiked to the highest levels of his presidency. During the week of May 24, 5800 migrants — the highest ever for one day — crossed on a single day. That was quickly followed by a group of 1036 migrants who were caught on surveillance cameras crossing the border en masse.
Trump later tweeted out the video, and the tariff threat soon followed.
The agreement with Mexico states that the two countries "will immediately expand" the Migrant Protection Protocols across the entire southern border. To date, migrants have been returned at only three of the busiest ports of entry.
MEXICO HAS AGREED TO IMMEDIATELY BEGIN BUYING LARGE QUANTITIES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 8, 2019
But officials familiar with the programme said today that the arrangement struck by the two countries last December always envisioned that it would expand along the entire border. What kept that from happening, they said, was the commitment of resources by both countries.
In the US, migrants must see immigration judges before they can be sent to wait in Mexico, and a shortage of judges slowed the process. The Mexican Government also dragged its feet on providing the shelter, health care, job benefits and basic care that would allow the US to send the migrants over.
The new deal reiterates that Mexico will provide the "jobs, health care and education" needed to allow the programme to expand. But the speed with which the US can send more migrants to wait in Mexico will still depend on how quickly the Government follows through on that promise.
Perhaps the clearest indication that both sides recognise that the deal might prove insufficient is contained in a section of the agreement titled "Further Action."
One official familiar with the negotiations said the section was intended to be a serious warning to the Mexican Government that Trump would be paying close attention to the daily reports he received about the number of migrants crossing the border. The official said that if the numbers failed to change — quickly — the President's anger would bring the parties back to the negotiating table.
"The tariff threat is not gone," the official said. "It's suspended."
Written by: Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman
© 2019 THE NEW YORK TIMES