Memo less damaging to Bush than Iraq

1.00pm

WASHINGTON - The deteriorating situation in Iraq poses much more of a threat for President George W Bush's re-election hopes than the tempest caused by release of an August 2001 briefing paper on the al Qaeda threat, political consultants and analysts said on Monday.

The Bush White House was placed on the defensive after releasing the classified document on Saturday upon the demand of the commission investigating the attacks of September 11, 2001.

Some Democrats seized on the presidential briefing paper as evidence that the Bush administration failed to react with sufficient urgency to non-specific information about the possibility of an al Qaeda attack on the United States.

Republicans said the document would not change any minds. However several expressed concern that events in Iraq, with rebellions in several towns and some of the bloodiest fighting since the fall of Saddam Hussein, posed a far graver threat to Bush.

"If you are, as I am, pro-Bush, I don't see anything in there that was actionable. If you are a Bush-hater, it mentions hijackings and explosives and it's a great rhetorical tool to score points," Gary Bauer, a former Republican presidential candidate who now strongly supports Bush said.

"Events on the Iraqi battlefield are much more likely to have an effect. To the extent that we look as if we are bogged down and unable to deal with what's happening, that will hurt the president," Bauer said.

The intelligence document of August 2001, said al Qaeda members were in the United States and the FBI had detected suspicious activity "consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks."

Bush himself said it was too vague for him to take action that might have headed off the September 11 attacks. "It said Osama bin Laden had designs on America. Well, I knew that," Bush told reporters Sunday.

K.B. Forbes, a Republican operative who has worked on the presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes, said most undecided voters would make up their minds on the election in September and October, by which time the memo would be a footnote.

"I don't think it's politically damaging. What is hurting Bush much more than this is the quagmire in Iraq," he said.

The latest polls have shown support for Bush eroding slightly, but his ratings on fighting terrorism remain strong.

A Newsweek poll released on Monday, showed Bush trailing Democrat John Kerry by seven percentage points in a two-man matchup, 50-43 per cent. When independent Ralph Nader was factored in, Kerry led Bush 46-42 per cent with Nader at four points.

But 59 per cent of respondents approved of Bush's performance in the "war on terrorism and homeland security." When it came to Iraq, his approval was only 44 per cent.

Former White House spokesman Mike McCurry, who served under Democratic President Bill Clinton, said Kerry had to be very careful not to be seen as trying to exploit the memo for political gain.

"People don't want this politicised and turned into cheap political theatre. If Democrats do that, there will be a backlash," he said.

Still, McCurry said, the Bush administration argued that invading Iraq was a crucial part of the war on terrorism, so the issues were linked whether they liked it or not.

Vanderbilt University political scientist John Geer said the main effect of the memo was to prevent Bush getting his own political message out to the country for another week.

"The memo forces him to play defence but I don't think it's a huge deal. It has more of an indirect effect in that Bush is not able to go out and project his message the way he wants to," he said.

Pollster John Zogby has been predicting another neck-and-neck election for some months. He said the US was as sharply divided on the issue of what could have been done to avert the September 11 attacks, as on almost everything else.

"This memo does chip away a little at Bush's strength but ultimately the country remains split down the middle with a very small number of undecided votes up for grabs," he said.

- REUTERS

Herald Feature: Iraq