KEY POINTS:
President Thabo Mbeki's bid to cling to power in South Africa is crumbling with the ANC leader possibly headed for an ignominious exit.
South Africa's influential African National Congress Women's League yesterday nominated his nemesis, Jacob Zuma, ahead of a national conference to choose a new ANC leadership.
At the weekend Zuma roared ahead in early voting by ANC provincial structures despite a cloud of corruption hanging over him. Zuma won five provincial nominations against Mbeki's four.
Zuma won with huge margins. In those provinces where he lost to Mbeki, Zuma was narrowly defeated. In his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma won 580 votes to Mbeki's nine. In Mbeki's home province of Eastern Cape, Zuma attracted 322 votes against Mbeki's 502.
The ruling party meets for the final election of ANC leaders at its crunch congress in three weeks.
The ANC officials who voted constitute a large majority of the 4075 delegates who will vote by secret ballot for the party's leadership next month.
If their voting is replicated at the conference, then Mbeki, trailing Zuma by about 1000 votes, is certain to be humiliated.
Although Mbeki, who succeeded Nelson Mandela as head of state in 1999, is not eligible for re-election as President when his second term expires in 2009, he has sought to stay in power as leader of the ANC, whose constitution does not impose time limits. Critics say Mbeki wants to act as kingmaker and anoint a successor whom he can manipulate, and continue ruling from the sidelines after 2009.
Mbeki's designs are nevertheless being strongly resisted by the rank-and-file of the ANC who are opposed to the idea of having two centres of power and want him to step down in favour of a new leader. If he gets his way and remains at the helm of the ANC, some party members fear Mbeki might seek to change the constitution and stay on as President.
But Mbeki looks determined to take the battle to the wire. One strategist, Andile Nkuhlu, said withdrawal from the race was not an option for Mbeki. "We will work on delegates. We will work on other provinces," he said.
But many Zuma backers said they would refuse to be persuaded to change course. "This is not about money ... it's a matter of principle. Thabo must set an example and go. We don't need Mugabeism here," said one Zuma backer, a reference to the Zimbabwean President, Robert Mugabe, who is clinging to power after 27 years in office.
One analyst said that while Zuma was not the ideal candidate to lead South Africa, many would support him if his candidacy guaranteed getting rid of Mbeki.
- Independent
The Comeback Kid
Thabo Mbeki fired Jacob Zuma as Deputy President in 2005 over allegations he was involved in an arms corruption case.
That case was thrown out on a technicality but a court ruling earlier this month opened the way for prosecutors to recharge Zuma.
Zuma is a populist who has broad support among South Africa's poor blacks who have not seen their lives improve after the end of white rule. His reputation has survived a rape trial.
He also has the support of trade unions and Communists who criticise Mbeki for stifling dissent and enacting policies they say have enriched a small elite.
Zuma, who has no formal education, rose through the ranks to become head of intelligence in the ANC, a post that gave him leverage over allies and opponents alike.
- Reuters