Long wait lies ahead in Aust after uncertain poll

CANBERRA - Australia appears to be in for a long wait to learn who will govern the nation for the next three years, with the count in the most marginal seats not likely to be finalised until the end of the month, and real negotiations yet to begin with the independents who will determine the victor.

Late yesterday, most analysts were predicting the Government and the Opposition would each win 73 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, with three independents and one Green MP.

In the Senate, the Greens are expected to hold the balance of power by increasing their numbers from five to nine, although the new senators will not take their seats until next July.

But with absentee, postal and other votes yet to be counted the final outcome remains uncertain, leaving Julia Gillard and Labor in office as the caretaker Government for a period that provisions in the constitution could extend to three months.

There is a possibility that neither major party will reach a deal with the three independent MPs returned at the election - Queenslander Bob Katter and New South Welshmen Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott - forcing another election.

Their support would give the successful party the 76 seats it needs to govern but, if withheld from both, would deadlock Parliament.

But the three MPs have made stability a key goal, and have the opportunity to win significant concessions in exchange for their support - leverage they could lose if the nation went back to the polls for another vote.

This view was strengthened yesterday by a Morgan poll of 2000 voters asked whom they would vote for if another election was held: the major parties would gain, and Greens and independents suffer. "The three or four independents and the Greens will be working hard to ensure there is no need for another election," pollster Gary Morgan said.

The election of a fourth independent remains a possibility, with a recount in the Tasmanian seat of Denison, awarded by computer predictions at the weekend to Andrew Wilkie, a former Green who appeared to have won it from Labor. It has since been claimed by the Government.

And in Western Australia the Coalition has been shaken by the election of Nationals candidate Tony Crook, who won the seat of O'Connor from Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey.

Although federally in coalition with the Liberals, the WA Nationals operate independently and frequently with tensions between the two conservative state parties.

"Unless the needs of WA are met in this Parliament, then you can't expect Tony Crook to just freely give support," said state party president Colin Holt.

With rural interest groups jubilant at the prospect of greater clout in Canberra and business urging a rapid end to uncertainty, Gillard and Opposition leader Tony Abbott flew into the national capital yesterday to begin their bid for power.

Both have already spoken with Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott, who have agreed to work out a common position but who have also said that they could see no point in negotiations until the final state of play was known.Oakeshott told ABC radio the three would work together "so that leaders don't have to talk individually to all of us, we don't get picked off by political interests and vested interests, and that we can keep the focus genuinely on the outcome of a Parliament that can work for the next three years".

Stability, parliamentary reforms to help break the grip of two-party politics, ethics and rural and regional interests are among the guarantees they will be seeking.

They are also seeking Treasury advice on the real state of the economy and on the costings of both parties' election commitments.

Both Gillard and Abbott have said they will be listening hard and are prepared to bargain. Labor already has the support of new Green MP Adam Bandt.

Abbott has already suggested modifying his broadband policy to satisfy the independents - who prefer Labor's network - and has been arguing that stability is not possible with a Labor Government that was prepared to knife its former leader, Kevin Rudd, at the behest of factional leaders.

Punters apparently share the view, with odds at internet gaming agency Centrebet yesterday backing former union chief and Victorian factional heavyweight Bill Shorten to replace Gillard before the next election.

When that may be is unclear.

But the process of forming a new Government could take months.