Leadership challenges as Opposition implodes

The Australian Parliament returns to work this morning, eating into its Christmas break as the Opposition continues to implode, threatening to drag the Government's key climate change policy into a political black hole.

The weekend break did nothing to slow the descent into chaos that increasingly looks like claiming the head of Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, without producing any clear idea of what will come in his stead.

Former frontbencher Tony Abbott late yesterday remained the only confirmed candidate for tomorrow's challenge to Turnbull, although Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey was showing signs of buckling under the pressure of Liberal MPs eager for him to make a bid for the leadership.

On Saturday Hockey spent two hours with former Prime Minister John Howard. Hockey's decision to seek his advice was widely seen as an indicator that Hockey - until now a staunch Turnbull man - may be preparing his own run. But even if Hockey did win the leadership, the future of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's greenhouse emissions trading scheme and the more than 200 amendments being debated in the Senate would remain moot.

Hockey's politics are to the left of Turnbull, and his support for the amended ETS the Opposition agreed to support has so far been unequivocal.

He would either have to break the deal to vote the legislation through the Senate or face the same fury from ETS opponents that appears to be bringing Turnbull down. Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard made it clear the Government expected the Opposition to stick to its agreement and vote the ETS through, whether or not Hockey emerges as leader tomorrow: "Mr Hockey is on the public record as a supporter of this legislation."

The Government wants the legislation passed in time for the Copenhagen climate change summit.

Opponents want a scheme delayed until the rest of the world declares its hand. Turnbull, who has continued to claim Hockey as a supporter, told the Nine Network that his potential replacement would never backflip on the issue.

Liberal senators will meet this morning to discuss their tactics for the afternoon's continuing ETS debate, under enormous pressure from Turnbull and the Government to vote today, and by pressure from their opponents. It appeared unlikely a final vote will be made and that emphasis will instead continue on amassing numbers for both sides.

The one emerging likelihood is that rejection of the legislation will not trigger an early election, even if the Senate votes to defer a vote and send it to a committee for an inquiry to report early next year. Although rejection would hand the Government the trigger it needs to dissolve both houses of Parliament and send the nation to the polls, Rudd said he wanted to serve a full elected term.

A Galaxy Poll in the Sunday Telegraph reported that 60 per cent of respondents wanted to delay an ETS until after Copenhagen.

Newspoll polling in the Weekend Australian warned that an ETS was overwhelmingly supported by metropolitan Coalition voters, and that if even one in 10 of these changed sides because of a Senate block on the scheme, it could cost the Opposition 20 city seats.