KEY POINTS:
CANBERRA - Australia has warned of growing crises in the Pacific that will require economic and military intervention.
Grim projections from Prime Minister John Howard, Opposition leader Kevin Rudd and the Defence Force reflect increasing alarm in Canberra at the prospect of failed states, terrorism, transnational crime and an exodus of refugees from the region.
Howard and Rudd also warned of the continued rise of Islamist terrorism and with the exception of divided views on Iraq pledged Australian support for the United States in the Middle East and Pacific. They are also concerned about nuclear proliferation and the potential for terror groups to obtain and use weapons of mass destruction.
Although there are important differences in emphasis, the policies outlined by Howard and Rudd yesterday reflect a common view of the threats and issues facing Australia, and committed the nation to intervention in the Pacific. Their key difference is the war in Iraq: both are committed to the US alliance and support operations in Afghanistan.
In a speech releasing a defence policy paper, Howard tied support for the US-led "war on terror" in the Middle East to security of oil supplies, and continued Australia's open-ended combat commitment to Iraq. It was critical to establish a stable, democratic Iraq capable of defending itself against the al Qaeda terror network and the internal enemies that wished to tear it apart. "Despite the dreadful continuing violence and our frustration at the rate of political progress the Government remains committed to staying in Iraq with our coalition partners until the Iraqi security forces no longer require our support."
Rudd, who is leading the opinion polls ahead of this year's election, repeated his intention to bring Australian troops home in a phased withdrawal staged after consultation with the US. "Mr Howard's decision to participate in the invasion of Iraq is nothing less than the greatest failure of Australia's national security interests since Vietnam."
But both view with alarm events in the South Pacific. The defence paper warns that "fragile" states in the region could become havens for criminals and terrorists who wanted to operate without harassment from governments. "In our immediate region the cost of dealing with fragile states includes expensive military and police deployments and aid programmes designed to strengthen the ability of fragile states to run their own affairs." It says that while building and restoring nations could take many years and cost many millions of dollars, those costs would be far less than trying to reconstruct small states shattered by conflict because Australia had failed to intervene. "For many South Pacific states, weak governance, crime and social instability are a real threat to economic development."
Key examples are Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Fiji - countries also highlighted by Rudd in a speech outlining Labor's new foreign policy priorities. Rudd further pointed to ethnic violence in Vanuatu, the collapse of law and order in the Solomon Islands, the constitutional crisis and street violence in Tonga, and Nauru - "the first properly defined failed state".
He warned of huge costs to Australia of more failed states through military and police intervention - the Solomons operation cost A$1 billion for 500,000 people - massive humanitarian aid bills, a wave of refugees, and a potential flow of HIV/Aids from PNG's pandemic.
Labor would establish an Office of National Security to integrate a national response to emerging threats and would create a long-term Pacific partnership for development and security to negotiate state-by-state targets for development.
