The blueprint for the West's exit strategy for the long war in Afghanistan is being set out in a critical meeting, with military officials and diplomats battling to prevent a proposed depletion of Afghan forces while the security situation remains precarious.
The Independent has learned that military commanders and diplomats have been arguing against an early cut of almost 40 per cent in Afghan forces, just when they are supposed to be taking over security responsibility from Nato.
Under one proposal which was being considered, the numbers would shrink from 352,000 to 220,000 from 2014. The primary reason is cost: cutting manpower would lower the country's annual defence budget, which the international community will have to fund, from US$6.2 billion ($7.5 billion) to US$4.1 billion.
However, senior diplomatic and military sources say they are increasingly confident that the cuts, which they claim would have a hugely damaging effect at a particularly sensitive time, can be delayed.
The timetable remained unclear after yesterday's meeting in Brussels. The British Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, said: "I think the intention is that the numbers will run through 2014, through 2015, and will then start to go down to get to the target number of 228,500, which will be achieved by the end of 2017. So the number will be achieved over a couple of years."