Labour chiefs talk up threat of surprise Tory victory

Labour is warning its supporters that Michael Howard could become Prime Minister in an attempt to neuter the influence of left-wing MPs by winning a big majority in tomorrow's general election.

Although Labour chiefs are deeply worried that Iraq has dominated the closing stages of the general election campaign, they are privately hopeful of winning an unpredecented third term.

They are talking up the threat of a surprise Tory victory amid fears that some of Tony Blair's flagship policies could be blocked by a group of about 50 left-wingers likely to be elected to the new parliament.

Senior Labour officials admitted yesterday that they would have a "party management problem" if Mr Blair's majority were cut from its present 159 to about 50. They hope to win a majority of at least 80 to make it easier to push through the public service reforms in the Labour manifesto.

One Labour source said: "We hope and think we'll win. The issue is whether we win big enough to be able to implement our programme. We can't campaign for a big majority; we have to be a bit more subtle about it."

David Blunkett, who is expected to return to the Cabinet in a reshuffle on Friday if Labour retains power, confirmed Labour's fears that its third term agenda could be stymied by "disaffected" Labour MPs if the party's natural supporters do not support it tomorrow.

The former Home Secretary told The Independent: "I would say that the real danger of abstentions could lead to a parliament where the disaffected determine the policy of the country. I don't think that is a healthy outcome.

If the disaffected in the electorate end up with such a small majority that the disaffected in Parliament can actually rule, then it is the disaffected per se in the electorate and parliament that run the show. That is not good for democracy."

Labour repeated its message that Mr Howard could enter Downing Street through the backdoor in its final election broadcast of the campaign last night.

Despite falling Tory ratings in the opinion polls, Labour candidates are sending anxious reports back to the party's headquarters about a last-minute surge in support for the Liberal Democrats.

Labour officials believe the "Iraq effect" is helping Charles Kennedy's party and are worried that this could enable the Tories to leapfrog Labour in about 30 Labour-Tory marginals where the Liberal Democrats are in third place.

They also fear Liberal Democrat gains in some traditional Labour strongholds in the north. Labour insists the fight in the marginal seats that will decide the election is "tight".

A sample of postal votes in Watford shows Labour and the Tories running neck and neck.

One candidate and former minister said: "Iraq is hurting us. It's doing a lot of damage. The media coverage has reminded people about the war. A lot of them are saying they can't vote for Tony Blair."

Mr Blair launched a strong attack on the Liberal Democrats' drugs policy, which he said would lead to the decriminalisation of cannabis and mean nobody caught in possession of heroin or crack cocaine would be sent to jail.

"I think that's just crackers as a policy," he said.

- INDEPENDENT