Labor on track to keep Queensland

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Photo / AAP

Australian federal politicians are reading the entrails of the Queensland election, with both Labor and the Nationals finding cause for hope for the next nationwide poll.

Annastacia Palaszczuk's Labor Party appears likely to retain government, although a final result could take days.

Labor is ahead with 43 seats, the Liberal National Party on 38 and the Katter's Australian Party retaining its two spots in the 93-seat Parliament.

Labor is confident of forming a majority government as counting continues in 13 undecided seats. Labor insiders are confident of picking up a further four electorates to win 48 seats — one more than the 47 needed.

Former federal treasurer Wayne Swan says Labor's vote has proven remarkably resilient in an anti-incumbent political environment. "If we were to look at this in federal terms, federal Labor would be winning six, seven or eight seats, not just in the southeast, but also in regional Queensland." He was surprised by Labor's strength in what he described as "middle ground suburbs".

"Basically, middle ground voters have said the LNP pussy-footing around with One Nation is just unacceptable."

The ABC's election analyst Antony Green has also called the election for Labor, predicting the party will win 48 seats. Green predicts the Liberal National Party will claim 39 and the KAP two, while MPs from One Nation, Greens and an independent will also sit on the crossbench. Green says even if Labor falls short of 47 seats, they will still form government with the help of the Katters or an independent like Rockhampton Mayor Margaret Strelow.

An Electoral Commission Queensland spokeswoman said both pre-poll and postal votes are significantly up on the 2015 election, with more than 800,000 people voting before election day.

It's been a bad result for the LNP, with three opposition frontbenchers in Scott Emerson, Ian Walker and Andrew Cripps all in grave danger of losing their seats.

It was an even worse election for Pauline Hanson's One Nation party, which is yet to pick up a seat and lost its state leader, Steve Dickson, and star candidate Malcolm Roberts.

In many of Queensland's regional seats, the LNP's primary vote was only just ahead of Labor. Cabinet minister Matt Canavan believes this highlights the need for a strong Nationals Party — separate from the Liberals — at the federal level. "People in the regions want to have someone in their corner fighting for them," the senior Nationals senator said. Splitting the conservative vote with minor parties had made it harder for the LNP to win regional seats.

Junior federal minister Angus Taylor does not think the result's implications should be overstated in what it means at the federal level. He pointed out the Coalition got lower primary votes in both the 1998 and 2001 Queensland elections and went on to win the subsequent federal elections. He hopes people will note the consequence of voting for small conservative parties may be handing Labor power.

State of the result

93 seats in the state parliament
47 to gain a majority government
43 seats that Labor believes it has won so far
13 undecided seats