Koizumi clings to lead on eve of Japan's election

TOKYO - Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's ruling party held onto its comfortable lead on the eve of Japan's election, an opinion poll showed on Saturday, making the big question not whether it would win, but by how much.

Thirty percent of respondents to the survey, which was published by the daily Asahi Shimbun, said they would vote for Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the proportional representation section of the election, 11 percentage points ahead of the main opposition Democratic Party.

The election consists of single-seat constituencies, where voters select a particular candidate, and a proportional representation section where they must back a party.

The figures, largely in line with previous surveys, showed that the Democrats have failed to turn a tide which has run overwhelmingly in favour of the LDP.

Most polls have pointed to a majority for the LDP and its coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, in the 480-seat lower house of parliament, a result that would strengthen Koizumi's grip on power and allow him to forge ahead with reforms.

The prime minister dissolved the lower house and called the snap election after LDP rebels sided with the opposition to defeat bills to privatise the postal system, the core of his reform agenda.

Koizumi, 63, has vowed to step down if the ruling coalition fails to win a combined majority, but to resubmit the bills to privatise Japan Post -- a financial services giant with $3 trillion in assets -- if it holds on to power.

The LDP had 249 seats and the New Komeito 34 before the lower house was dissolved, against 175 for the Democrats. However, the LDP refused to put 37 rebels who voted against postal reform on the party ticket.

Media surveys have proved wrong in the past, and analysts said that although the LDP-led coalition looked set for a victory its majority would hinge on the mostly-urban voters with no affiliation to political parties.

The Asahi survey showed that 28 percent of voters still had not decided which party to vote for in the PR section.

The maverick prime minister is betting that a lower house victory will persuade recalcitrant LDP lawmakers in the upper chamber to change their minds and back the postal reform bill they rejected in an Aug. 8 vote that sparked the election.

His gamble appeared to paying off as a heavyweight LDP upper house lawmaker, who is seen as the leader of the rebel group, said on Friday that he would vote in favour of the postal bills should the coalItion win a majority in the election.

Analysts said media-savvy Koizumi's tactics, such as fielding high-profile candidates -- dubbed "assassins" by the media to -- challenge the LDP "traitors", have caught the attention of Japan's often-apathetic electorate and succeeded in taking the spotlight off the Democrats.

The Democrats, led by the stern-faced Katsuya Okada, 52, failed to capitalise on the split in the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost continuously for the past five decades, analysts added.

Many voters said it was difficult to understand the opposition party's stance on postal reform. It voted against the bills in parliament and says shrinking the postal savings and insurance system must come first, but does not rule out privatisation in the future.

- Reuters