Knives out for Tony Abbott in backbench revolt

Abbott's prime ministership is on the line. Photo / Getty Images

Tony Abbott came to power promising Australians "mature" and "stable" government after the in-fighting of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years. Just 17 months on, his own prime ministership is on the line, with Coalition MPs preparing for a possible leadership ballot next week that could see him toppled by Malcolm Turnbull.

After a week of backbench grumbling and fevered speculation about the leadership, the West Australian MP Luke Simpkins yesterday brought the situation to a head, announcing he would push for a ballot at Tuesday's meeting of federal Liberal and National Party politicians.

The move was welcomed by backbenchers who believe the Coalition has no chance of winning next year's election with Abbott in charge. But the Prime Minister's allies were dismayed, with the Liberal MP Andrew Nikolic likening it to the "ill-disciplined and self-interested behaviours that the Australian people explicitly rejected in 2013".

Abbott himself was defiant, declaring that he and his deputy, Julie Bishop, would "stand together" to defeat Simpkins' motion for a ballot to be staged. However, if the motion succeeds, both leadership positions will open up, leaving Bishop - who has won plaudits as Foreign Minister - free to make a tilt for the prime ministership.

Turnbull - who led the Liberals until 2009, when Abbott defeated him by just one vote - will be in a similar situation. The other possible candidate, Scott Morrison, who is well regarded for his tough action to "stop the [asylum-seeker] boats", yesterday ruled himself out.

After an atrocious first year for the Government, largely attributed to an unpopular and poorly marketed budget, Coalition politicians were hoping for a good start to 2015.

Dire polls, though, were compounded by Abbott's bizarre Australia Day knighting of Prince Philip - a "captain's call" which horrified his colleagues. Then came last weekend's phenomenally bad election result for the Liberal National Party in Queensland, in large part attributed to the federal Government's woes.

As backbench discontent grew and festered this week, it seemed no one was willing to lance the boil. While both Bishop and Turnbull covet the top job, neither wanted, perhaps, to be the person plunging the knife into Abbott. Memories of the anti-Gillard backlash are still fresh.

It was no coincidence, commentators believe, that when the move finally came, it originated in WA, Bishop's power base. Simpkins' motion will be seconded by another WA MP, Don Randall, and is supported by a third, Dennis Jensen.

Bishop - whose statements have been closely monitored this week - chose her words carefully yesterday, telling Fairfax Media she would oppose the spill motion out of "cabinet solidarity". Conspicuously, she did not declare Abbott to be the best person to lead the Government.

If she does challenge, she will, presumably, say that she was reluctantly co-opted and agreed to do so only in the interests of the Coalition and the nation.

This week, both she and Turnbull have stressed the importance of a united team. Like her, Turnbull, the Communications Minister, has otherwise kept his cards close to his chest.

As for the rest of the Cabinet, some ministers were said to be increasingly worried by the crescendo of noise from the backbench.

What no one knows is the level of support for Bishop or Turnbull - or even whether Simpkins' motion will be backed by a majority - at least 52 - of Coalition politicians. However, if the motion is not passed but is supported by a substantial number, Abbott may decide to call a ballot anyway, in order to resolve an untenable situation. He could even decide to bring the party room meeting forward to Monday and call a ballot then.

What seems certain is that, even if Abbott wins a ballot or if no ballot takes place, he will be badly wounded, and it will only be a matter of time before the requisite numbers mass against him. There, too, the parallels with Rudd's campaign to push out Gillard are instructive.

Whatever happens, the Coalition will lose the moral high ground. As Trade Minister Andrew Robb warned on Sky News, before Simpkins announced his motion: "If something happened on Tuesday which led to a spill, we would be seen as a bunch of amateurs."

Power games

Kevin Rudd: in power from December 3, 2007, to June 24, 2010.

Total of 906 days. Ousted in first term by Julia Gillard in leadership ballot.

Julia Gillard: in power from June 24, 2010, until June 27, 2013.
Total of 1100 days. Ousted by Rudd in leadership ballot.

Kevin Rudd: in power from June 27, 2013, to September 7, 2013.
Total of 73 days. Lost 2013 election to Tony Abbott.

Tony Abbott: in power since September 7, 2013.
By next Tuesday, the day of a possible leadership ballot, he will have been in power for 522 days.