Key minister's exit will test Zuma Govt

South Africa's most respected minister, Trevor Manuel, is reportedly set to leave the Cabinet, giving President Jacob Zuma's new Government its first major test since last week's election.

The last time the Finance Minister briefly resigned it crashed the markets in Africa's largest economy and triggered a run on the rand.

The fate of the award-winning 56-year-old, who has been courted by the World Bank among others, is seen as an indicator of the stability and direction of Zuma's new Government.

Reports yesterday said the country's longest-serving Finance Minister would be moved to a new oversight body called the central planning commission when the post-election Cabinet is announced on May 9.

An unnamed member of the minister's staff told a South African newspaper, the Sunday Times, that Manuel had already held a function to say goodbye to his colleagues at Finance.

There has been no public comment from the ANC, which insisted during the campaign that Manuel would keep his job. In theory, the new commission would exercise considerable power in monitoring the Government's performance and work from inside the office of the President. It is possible Manuel could serve in both roles. But any move for the Western Cape politician will add to uncertainty about policy direction under Zuma, a former communist.

The Zulu showman narrowly failed to secure the two-thirds majority he had targeted in last week's election. This means he will not be able to change the constitution without the support of the Opposition. But he won a substantial 65.9 per cent of the vote.

Zuma has close links to the hard left and trade unions which will be expecting to have a more influential voice in government.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), which has clashed often with Manuel, wasted little time in demanding a return on its political investment in Zuma. "We must take vigorous action to protect workers from the impact of the global economic crisis," it said yesterday.

While the legacy of former President Thabo Mbeki has been tarnished by Aids denial, he and Manuel can take the credit for relatively robust public finances. The political capital enjoyed by the ANC in the wake of apartheid was used in part to direct the party away from its left-wing command economy roots and to pay down public debt with a monetarist agenda.

The dividends from that unpopular housekeeping have since been ploughed back into public services and benefits, with South Africa leading the developing world in welfare spending.

It's a record that has won Manuel many admirers both inside and outside the country and saw him placed at No 4 on the ANC party list this year.

Manuel grew up poor in Cape Town where under apartheid his mixed-race background meant he was classified as "coloured". After joining the ANC, he was imprisoned several times. He has held his present job since 1996.

Sources close to Manuel have hinted he may hanker after the deputy presidency, allowing him to play a similar role to that of Mbeki during the one-term Mandela Administration.

Possible replacements for the finance post include ANC stalwart Cyril Ramaphosa, Manuel's accident-prone deputy Nhlanhla Nene and tax chief Pravin Gordhan.

- INDEPENDENT