Karzai set to reward controversial allies

HELMAND- Afghanistan's beleaguered President Hamid Karzai makes his inauguration speech tonight, acutely aware that his disgruntled international backers will be poring over it for signs that he intends to mend his ways.

But while he may carry out a cull of ministers, diplomats are expecting them to be minor sacrificial lambs rather than the worst offenders.

Karzai's two running mates are expected to be confirmed as his vice-presidents: Muhammed Qasim Fahim, accused of drug trafficking, and Abdul Karim Khalili, charged in a human rights report with alleged war crimes.

When Karzai made his victory speech earlier this month, following an election win mired in allegations of massive fraud, he signalled his defiance by choosing to be flanked by the two men.

Diplomats described the choreography as deliberately provocative towards the United States and Nato powers pressing for the removal of warlords and power-brokers who have been accused of flouting the rule of law and undermining governance.

Neither Fahim nor Khalili are expected to lose their places in the new cabinet. Instead, the widespread expectation is that Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta, and Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak, will be booted out. The two ministers do not have reputations for corruption nor are they considered to have been particularly bad at their jobs. But they do not control large vote banks, or enjoy powerful tribal followings.

If they do go, both men are likely to be replaced by figures approved by Dr Abdullah Abdullah - the man whose strong showing forced a second round, only for him to pull out citing unsatisfactory polling conditions - and ex-president Burhanuddin Rabbani.

But Karzai would not risk angering Fahim or Khalili, even if he did feel like trying to placate the West or his former adversary. Fahim brought in the Tajik vote in the August polls and Khalili pulled in the Hazara ballots, thus ensuring that Abdullah did not gain as much of the non-Pashtun vote as he might have hoped.

Similarly, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who US President Barack Obama has declared should be investigated over the killings of thousands of Taleban prisoners, is unlikely to face any charges as he delivered a large portion of the Uzbek vote to Karzai.

Critics point out that Karzai will be anointed president in the same week that a new report showed Afghanistan slipping down the corruption ranks to second from bottom. According to the corruption watchdog, Transparency International, Afghanistan is now 179th, with only Somalia below it.

Kabul will be under lockdown, with the airport closed and Afghans given a public holiday and advised to avoid "unnecessary movements".

Yesterday British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in a speech to a Nato conference in Edinburgh that Taleban fighters should be persuaded to lay down their arms and take seats in the Afghan Parliament in an effort to build a lasting peace in the country.

He argued that most Taleban supporters were not ideologically committed to a global jihad and had to be offered an "alternative to fighting, a route back into society, not just a tougher penalty".

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown forecast that 10 other countries would also be prepared to boost troop numbers. Anders Rasmussen, Nato Secretary-General, also called for more troops to bolster military efforts.

- INDEPENDENT