Karzai pushing for deal to shut out main rival

KABUL - With less than two weeks to go until national elections, the Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, is trying to cut a secret deal with one of his rivals to knock out his leading contender and ensure a decisive victory, to avoid the chaos that a tight result might unleash.

Afghanistan's second democratic polls threaten to split the country along sectarian lines. That would risk undermining United States and British-led peace efforts which are already under pressure from a resurgent Taleban.

Karzai and his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, hail from different ethnic groups and different regions. If neither wins outright in round one on August 20, officials fear Afghanistan could be engulfed by violence reminiscent of the civil war of the 1990s.

"The whole country is armed. Everybody has weapons. You have to keep everyone happy," an Afghan analyst said. Abdullah's campaign staff have threatened to hold demonstrations should Karzai win, insisting that he could only do so fraudulently.

Abdullah's supporters, who are largely Tajik, have warned of Iranian-style protests, but "with Kalashnikovs", should the President win a second term.

Although Karzai, a Pashtun, is still the favourite, his supporters fear that a third candidate, Ashraf Ghani, could split the Pashtun vote, depriving the President of the 51 per cent share he needs to win, and opening the door to Abdullah.

Yesterday, details emerged of how the President was trying to join forces with Ghani to unite the Pashtun vote and knock Abdullah out of the race. Officials said the President had offered Ghani a job as chief executive - a new post described as similar to prime minister. "If Ghani agrees to the terms, Karzai will dump his team and move forward, with Karzai as President and Ghani as chief executive," a campaign official told the Independent.

Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Karl Eikenberry, the US ambassador, are understood to have discussed the proposal with Ghani late last month. "It makes sense," a policy analyst with close links to the US Administration said. "Holbrooke likes Ghani, and he has come round to the fact that Karzai will probably win."

The idea of a chief executive was hatched in Washington as a way of handing the responsibility of running the government to a skilled technocrat. Ghani is a former university professor and finance minister. Two years ago, he was a contender to head the World Bank. What he lacks is the grassroots support that Karzai and Abdullah enjoy.

Sources close to the President's inner circle confirmed that they made an offer to Ghani two weeks ago, and the President's brother, Qayum Karzai, had made the first approach. His argument was that Ghani couldn't win "and even if he did, he couldn't hold on to power".

US Embassy officials have denied any involvement in back-room deals. Yesterday, Ghani's staff said he had no plans to pull out of the race. They said Karzai's offer was proof of their own candidate's strength.

- INDEPENDENT