Kamala Harris v Donald Trump: Why US election is going to go down to the wire – Shane Te Pou

In US Presidential elections, it’s not how many votes you win, it’s how many states you win, and how many electoral college votes those states have. Photo / NZME montage, Getty Images, 123RF

THREE KEY FACTS

• The US presidential election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5.
• Swing states such as Pennsylvania are crucial for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s paths to victory.
• Shane Te Pou is going to be visiting the battleground states.

Shane Te Pou (Ngāi Tūhoe) is a commentator, blogger and former Labour Party activist.

OPINION

Six weeks ago, I was ready to call the US Presidential election for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Now, I’m not so sure. I think it’s going to go down to the wire.

To get a feel for the race at ground level, I’m going to be visiting the battleground states in the US over the next few weeks and reporting back to you.

I’m travelling with a diehard Republican from New Zealand. Although I wouldn’t call him a Trump man. His nickname is the Punter and he has a nose for political races. He was one of the very few to pick National winning New Lynn and he is convinced that Harris will win the White House.

Our first stop after arriving in the States was my favourite place for loose talk – a local New York dive bar. I was surprised by how much support Trump has in this Democrat city. However, none of his supporters believed for a minute that Trump would come close to winning the state, where just over 9 million votes are typically cast.

In US Presidential elections, it’s not how many votes you win, it’s how many states you win, and how many electoral college votes those states have. So, it boils down to a handful of larger states where voters are split between left and right.

The most competitive states to watch are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina.

I would also keep an eye on both Florida and Texas, which could potentially swing to the Democrats on a good day. Texas is particularly interesting as the incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is very unpopular in the Republican heartland after abandoning the state and escaping to Mexico while Texas experienced freezing conditions, power blackouts and nearly 300 citizens dying. Cruz is up against African American former NFL player and current Texas Congressman Colin Allred. It’s a big call but support for Allred and changing demographics may see Texas turn Democrat for the first time since 1976.

Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Michigan. Photo / Getty Images

Florida is split between its liberal south and its traditionally conservative north. Why would I think Florida would be in play in 2024 when polls show Trump ahead by just over five points? Firstly, the Democrats are spending the most money in that state since Obama last won it. Secondly, the Republicans’ oppressive abortion laws are on the ballot this year and could see higher turnout numbers from Democrats.

But Texas and Florida won’t determine the fate of this election. The reality is one or two of the swing states I mentioned above will give either Harris or Trump the best pathway to the magical number of 270 electoral college votes.

In 2020 Biden won Georgia with a paper-thin majority of 12,000 votes in a state where almost 6,000,000 are expected to vote. Republicans win rurally and Democrats win the cities.

Georgia and in particular Atlanta have experienced an economic upturn over the last decade, which has led to particular growth in the Atlanta suburbs that have been good for Democrats. Look for Biden, Obama and Clinton – who are popular in Georgia – to be on the ground leading up to the election. And, yes, there is the Oprah factor as she has deep strong roots in this state.

Kamala Harris on the campagn trail in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Photo / Getty Images

North Carolina is another state to watch. This state was a Republican stronghold until Obama won it by 0.3% in 2008. Since then, Republican candidates have secured only narrow wins. Latest polls show Harris slightly ahead in the Tar Heel State. The turnout of black voters will be key.

But the state everyone is watching is Pennsylvania. The largest competitive state, with less than 1% separating Trump and Harris in the polls. Both sets of presidential and vice-presidential candidates are visiting multiple times a week.

Pennsylvania has been slowly moving Republican driven by changes in the population and the economy. In recent years, many rural and suburban areas have become more conservative, mainly because people are worried about job security and taxes. The loss of manufacturing jobs in cities has also led to frustration with the Democratic Party, which has long been in charge in Pennsylvania. As more people in these areas focus on issues like lower taxes and better public safety, the state’s political landscape is changing.

As a swing state, Pennsylvania is very important in national elections because it has a mix of voters from different backgrounds. In the next few weeks, everyone will be paying attention to cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where Democrats still have strong support, but also to suburban areas like Bucks and Chester counties, where Republicans are gaining ground.

So, I’m going to keep you as informed as I possibly can. I’ll be spending time on the ground, particularly in Pennsylvania, talking to locals at sporting events in the local diners and dive bars – for purely research purposes, of course.