Having a committed Brexiteer such as Boris Johnson in charge is unlikely to naturally galvanise support behind a go-for-it clean break. Photo / AP
Opinion
COMMENT
With the collapse of Theresa May's deal, and now her premiership, the odds on a no-deal Brexit are judged to have narrowed, or that at least is how markets see it.
Perhaps they are right, but to me it is still quite hard to see why the prospect of
a new prime minister, even one who has said they are willing to contemplate a no-deal exit, changes matters very much. Whoever it is still faces the same parliamentary arithmetic, and will be hemmed in just as much as May by the divisions within their own party.
The idea that having a committed Brexiteer such as Boris Johnson in charge will of itself naturally galvanise support behind a go-for-it clean break is complete fantasy, as is the notion that more overt "strong man" brinkmanship is capable of winning a more palatable deal from the European Commission.
As someone who is far more relaxed about free movement than May, my guess is that Johnson will go for a prolonged transition, during which though technically the UK will have left the EU, not much will change, including contributions to the EU budget, membership of the customs union and much else. The transition would provide space for negotiation of a Canadian-style free-trade agreement, which would take many years.
