It's mate against mate as Liberal leadership crisis deepens

CANBERRA - The crisis tearing the Australian Opposition apart late yesterday reached a new pitch as Leader Malcolm Turnbull vowed to fight to the end but refused to say whether his "good friend" and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey would run against him in a leadership contest today.

Hockey, who has consistently supported Turnbull in both the leadership and his bid to force a greenhouse emissions trading scheme through Parliament, is widely expected to seek - and win - the leadership.

Hockey last night declined to comment on his intentions, but Turnbull said Hockey had promised to vote against a leadership spill at a Liberal Party meeting at 11am that would declare the leadership vacant and call for new contenders.

If Turnbull loses the spill motion the resulting contest would not technically be a challenge, freeing Hockey from his earlier commitments to Turnbull.

So far the only confirmed candidates are Turnbull and frontbencher Tony Abbott, a former ETS and Turnbull supporter who last week switched sides and called the spill.

Today's meeting will run against the background of the continuing debate in the Senate over the amended ETS put to Parliament under an agreement between the Government and the Opposition, but which is now increasingly in doubt. Turnbull precipitated the Opposition leadership crisis by ramming the deal through the party room in a controversial call that enraged both its opponents and others furious at Turnbull's autocratic style of leadership.

Rebel Liberals have vowed to cross the floor to join senators of the junior Coalition partner, the Nationals, who reject an ETS in any form, and independent and minor party senators who also do not want the legislation passed at this stage. Most want the bill to be deferred until after the Copenhagen climate change summit, and to be referred to a Senate committee inquiry in the meantime.

If Turnbull defies all expectations and retains the leadership today, the passage of the bill still remains unlikely. If Hockey becomes leader he will then face the option of reneging on the deal with the Government and defer the ETS legislation, or igniting the same sort of party fury that is now tearing Turnbull's leadership to shreds.

Either way, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will almost certainly be denied the ETS he wanted to take with him to Copenhagen, but handing him the option to call an early election if he wishes.

Turnbull, meanwhile, continues to stare down his growing numbers of opponents, swollen by desertions over the weekend as the depths of his problems became even more clear, and by a vitriolic attack Turnbull launched against ETS opponents within the party.

He refused yesterday to declare whether during a lengthy meeting with Hockey his Shadow Treasurer had said he would run for the leadership if a spill was declared.

Hockey has been reluctant to step forward but has come under enormous pressure to stand for the job. Over the weekend he gained the endorsement of Former PM John Howard, former Treasurer Peter Costello and former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, and appears to have the majority of Liberal MPs behind him. He also emerged as the preferred leader in three polls yesterday, and is now the hot favourite to take the Opposition to the next election in betting with internet bookmaker Centrebet.

Abbott has indicated that if Hockey does stand for the leadership today he would step aside.

"If Joe [Hockey] is the person who is best placed to heal the party well, that is fine by me," he said.

Turnbull said Hockey had told him he intended to vote against a spill today, but declined to comment further on Hockey's intentions should the spill vote succeed.

Turnbull said that Hockey continued to support the ETS: "Joe is on the record regularly and frequently in multimedia form supporting the position of the shadow cabinet and as far as I'm aware he hasn't changed his mind."

He said Hockey remained a close personal friend.

"Joe and I are very good friends. We talk a lot, we have very similar views on most issues, our families are very close. He's a good man."

JOE HOCKEY: ON THE RISE

* Aged 44, born in Sydney of Armenian and Palestinian descent.
* Elected to Parliament in 1996.
* Rose rapidly in John Howard's Coalition Government, holding a series of key portfolios.
* In Opposition became Shadow Treasurer and a Malcolm Turnbull loyalist.
* Expected to bow to pressure and run for the leadership.