KEY POINTS:
The military-led Interim Government of Fiji appears to be marching backwards from its commitment to hold an election by March 2009.
Promises made last April by Commodore Frank Bainimarama, interim Prime Minister, to the European Union and in October to the leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum meeting at Nuku'alofa are looking shaky and diplomatic and human rights observers fret that the long-waited election may be put off.
Herald readers will be familiar with the more spectacularly dodgy actions by the interim government, which include:
* Banning of the main Fiji party, the SDL.
* Harassment of opposition political leaders.
* Intimidation of critical journalists.
* The declaration of New Zealand's high commissioner, Michael Green, as persona non grata.
* Sporadic invocation of emergency regulations justified by allegations of conspiracies led by New Zealander Ballu Khan.
* Deportation of the Australian editor of the Fiji Sun.
Behind the headlines even more negative and far-reaching events are unfolding. First, the interim government has systematically dismissed top officials associated with the Qarase Government elected in 2006 and replaced them with military officers or compliant civilians.
Most have inferior qualifications or experience for their new jobs, their main quality being loyalty to the interim regime.
The Fiji Human Rights Commission has been co-opted and lost credibility and New Zealand aid funding. A new civilian government would put the tenure of these appointees at risk, so they have little incentive to move towards an election.
Second, the Great Council of Chiefs has been purged of any chief who has been a political party leader or government official, and the commodore has appointed himself chairman of the council.
This divides the leadership of the Fijian community and weakens the chiefs' ability to support the main opposition party, the SDL, or to resist the interim government's policies.
Third, the interim government has failed to prepare adequately for an election to be held in just 12 months. Finance Minister Mahendra Chaudhry has proposed a budget of one-tenth the sum spent on the 2006 election.
The Electoral Office functions with only a skeleton staff. A Supervisor of Elections (whose salary Australia has offered to pay) has not been appointed. Electoral boundaries haven't been drawn and no comprehensive plans are in place for voter registration, ballot boxes, vote counters and supervisors, central registration and aggregation, security, quality control or reporting.
Fourth, recommendations and offers of assistance by visiting teams from New Zealand, Australia, the United States and the European Union have been ignored. In the past year, New Zealand has sent not one but three teams to Fiji to assess and advise on electoral matters and is in regular contact with sympathetic officials via the High Commission in Suva.
The Prime Minister, her Australian counterpart and the American ambassador have all publicly admonished the interim government to move forward to an election, to little avail. The interim government demands that its overseas partners dispense aid up front to fund electoral preparations but those governments want to see plans, budgets and accountability measures in place before handing over any money.
Non-co-operation with a representative of the International Bar Association last month is a further indicator that the interim government has little tolerance of outside observers and could limit international monitoring and validating of the election when it finally takes place.
Fifth, Commodore Bainimarama has initiated a new political vehicle, the National Council for Building a Better Fiji, which he co-chairs with the Catholic bishop of Fiji. The council's mission is to draft a People's Charter. The format, content and authority of this charter are not yet clear.
Outside observers have speculated that the commodore might argue for the postponement of the election until this process, which is to include committees, task groups and public consultations, is completed, a claim Bainimarama denies.
Some critics have gone further, wondering if the People's Charter might become a populist vehicle to legitimising the military regime, perhaps displacing the 1997 Constitution itself. Methodist church leaders, representing most ethnic Fijian church-goers, have refused to take part.
The military coup of December 2006 has already cost Fiji tens of millions of dollars in suspended aid, reduced tourist revenues, delayed foreign investment and shrunken remittances. The failure to take steps towards a March 2009 election will accelerate the loss, to the detriment of the Fijian people and the disapprobation of the international community.
Economic deprivation could intensify social and political tensions, and public disorder and military repression are plausible scenarios.
Partner governments, businesspeople, non-governmental organisations and Fiji well-wishers generally will remain critical of the interim government until it begins to march forward towards an election.
* Dr Stephen Hoadley, Associate Professor of Political Studies at Auckland University, recently returned from a research visit to Suva.
