KEY POINTS:
During the past months, the Interim Government of Fiji has shown its hesitancy to return to civilian democracy via an election. As I said in my article yesterday, the military-led regime has been slow to set up the preconditions for an election provisionally scheduled for March 2009. And it has taken several actions contrary to democratic practice.
Two questions arise for Fiji's partner governments, including New Zealand. First, is it any of their business? And second, what can they do about it and how?
The first question is answered by a succession of Fijian governments. At recent Pacific Island Forum summits, of which New Zealand is a member, and in meetings with partner governments and the European Union, Fijian leaders, including those of the Interim Government, have made pledges.
These include to uphold democracy and the rule of law, protect human rights and institute good-governance practices. Fiji remains a signatory to a number of fundamental human rights treaties. The Fiji constitution of 1997, democratic except for ethnic Fijian privileges in the senate and presidency, remains in force.
Inasmuch as the curtailment of democracy in Fiji violates internationally accepted human rights, interferes with diplomatic harmony, creates adverse conditions for trade, investment and tourism, generates an outflow of economic migrants, and raises tensions that might erupt in disorder and repression putting foreign nationals at risk, it is of legitimate concern to neighbouring governments. Economic dislocation and political disorder can lead to crime, disease and environmental despoilation that can spill over to neighbouring countries.
The relativist argument that the Fijian people should be free to choose their form of government, even a non-democratic one, is of dubious validity in this case. The Fijian people did not install the Interim Government. The military did, by coup d'état, and have not asked the people for approval.
What can be done from outside? Negative responses by partner governments have been sharp. These have included official public criticism of non-democratic acts, diplomatic ostracism, travel bans and suspension or curtailment of economic aid, all accompanied by exhortations to conduct an election or otherwise restore civilian democratic authority.
Helen Clark and Winston Peters have been outspoken in their rebukes. New Zealand's High Commissioner in Suva continues to be designated as "acting" and New Zealand diplomats have been instructed to avoid direct contact with top members of the Interim Government.
New Zealand has banned not only Commodore Frank Bainimarama and his officers, but also his top civilian appointees and their families from entering our country (which has inadvertently impacted on Fijian soccer and netball teams).
Cabinet has terminated military co-operation and suspended about four-fifths of New Zealand's aid to Fiji, including new scholarships, government-to-government training, and assistance to bodies such as the Fiji Human Rights Commission and Fiji Law Reform Commission, regarded as co-opted.
Government-to-government negotiations to facilitate the Regional Seasonal Workers Scheme, now up and running for five other Pacific countries, were frozen.
Australia has imposed similar sanctions. The United States response was less formal, but the US ambassador has expressed his criticism publicly.
US diplomats have scaled down their contacts with the Interim Government and elements of military co-operation have been postponed. The European Union temporarily suspended negotiations for the European Development Fund potentially putting at risk $400 million in aid over the next five years.
China, Taiwan and other Asian govern-ments have continued relations with Fiji more or less as normal.
Positive responses, however, are not lacking. They get less publicity but some diplomats regard them as more promising. The European Union, convinced that persuasion is more effective in inducing reform than confrontation, and in accordance with the Cotonou Agreement, has launched an "enhanced diplomatic dialogue" with Fiji.
This entails monitoring fulfilment of 13 conditions to which Fiji committed in April 2007. The EU has maintained diplomatic contacts and, in December, initialled an Interim Economic Partnership Agreement with Fiji.
Mid-level diplomats from New Zealand, Australia and the US continue to work harmoniously with their Fiji counterparts to conduct essential business. High-level contacts in multilateral forums such as the Pacific Island Forum and affiliated regional bodies, and the United Nations, continue.
Furthermore, partner governments have all offered aid to facilitate the election process, ranging from Australia's offer to fund the salary of a Supervisor of Elections to New Zealand's technical assistance to augment the Electoral Office and Boundary Commission work. Partner governments meet periodically with Fiji officials in the Forum Joint Working Group to map a route to an election.
All have indicated that current sanctions may be reviewed at any time and lifted in proportion to specific steps taken to hold an election and restore constitutional authority. Grassroots aid and aid channelled through international agencies and non-governmental organisations regarded as of direct benefit to the Fijian people have been maintained by all partner governments.
Ultimately, the influence of outsiders is limited. Blanket trade and travel sanctions have been ruled out as harming the innocent. Total diplomatic ostracism would end any hope of persuasion. Regime change by military means or subversion is risky and costly and not on any government's agenda.
Although outside governments' policies are moderate, and sometimes appear inconsistent, they create a bias towards reform. They avoid provoking bitterness and backlash in Fiji or incurring costs or illegitimacy at home.
Setting a good example of liberal democracy and professional diplomacy - coupled with persistent persuasion, gentle pressure and benign conditionality - will yield the best long-term result for New Zealand and other partner governments dealing with Fiji.
* Dr Stephen Hoadley, associate professor of political studies at the University of Auckland, recently returned from a research visit to Suva.
