Israeli forces dig in for war they must win

By ERIC SILVER in Jerusalem

The Passover eve massacre in Netanya, in which a suicide bomber killed 26 Jews sitting down to a festive dinner, stretched Israeli tolerance beyond breaking point.

The right-wing Likud Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, could finally do what he had wanted, but hesitated, to do all along.

He has sent his armoured and infantry forces into a war they know they cannot afford to lose. By yesterday, rightly or wrongly, they believed they were winning. If so, they would then try to negotiate a ceasefire from a position of strength.

The immediate aim is to destroy key components of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's security apparatus, which the Israelis claim has become a command centre of a Palestinian offensive that killed 124 Israelis and tourists, civilians and soldiers, in March alone.

After that, the Army is expected to train its guns on deadly, private-enterprise militias such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

Veteran defence analyst Ze'ev Schiff wrote in Ha'aretz this week: "The orders are to leave no place connected with terror unoccupied by the Army."

The Army has been deployed for a long stay and will fan across far more of the West Bank - and perhaps eventually the Gaza Strip. About 20,000 reservists have been called up to fighting units.

Military experts say this operation has been planned thoroughly. The Government has instructed the Army to exercise care and discipline, and to work within parameters defined by the political leadership.

It is a high-risk strategy, which could be undermined by a trigger-happy soldier or a misdirected shell. But it is one Israel now feels it has to pursue.

The first priority is to break the wave of suicide bombings. The planners argue that if the Army entrenches itself in a Palestinian town or refugee camp, no terrorist attacks emanate from it. They cite Ramallah as an example.

Ramallah was targeted first because it is the seat of Arafat's Palestinian administration and the power base of his Fatah movement. A position paper distributed last week by the army spokesman defined it as the "axis of terrorism".

Intelligence sources claim documents captured this week from offices in Arafat's besieged compound reinforce that diagnosis. They are said by the Israelis to provide evidence that the Al Aqsa Brigades, which are affiliated to Al Fatah, received their orders and funding (in forged Israeli currency) from the Palestinian leader's headquarters.

Al Aqsa and their allies of Fatah's Tanzim militia have taken credit for more and more of the bombings and roadside shootings.

Israel is not trying to assassinate high-profile commanders who are political as well as military figures. The Preventive Security headquarters, near Ramallah, came under attack because wanted men had taken refuge there.

Five key Hamas operatives accused of sending bombers into Jerusalem, Haifa and other Israeli targets were among those who surrendered.

Yet the security service chief, Jibril Rajoub, is free to move around the West Bank because, for all his thuggish reputation, he is a man who has negotiated with Israel and remains a candidate to do so again.

So, in the long run, is Marwan Barghouti, the fugitive Tanzim commander. Israel would like to capture and interrogate him, but not to kill him.

Rajoub and Barghouti are aspiring leaders of Fatah's next generation, the kind who might yet be strong and independent enough to deliver a compromise agreement.

Israel has no such illusions about Arafat. His rejection, until it was too late, of the American ceasefire plan has written him out of their script.

A senior Israeli diplomat said: "All the indications were that Arafat was not ready to stop the violence."

At American insistence, Israel has agreed - so far - not to kill or expel him.

The Bush Administration gave Sharon a nod and a wink for this offensive, so long as it did not jeopardise the stability of "moderate" Arab regimes and their acquiescence in a planned assault on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. That is Arafat's shield.

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