Israel ready to ease closures after Arafat dies

JERUSALEM - Israel could ease tough closures on Palestinian areas if Yasser Arafat dies so as to encourage the emergence of a moderate successor and a ceasefire by armed groups, political sources say.

Arafat's decline at a military hospital in Paris has fuelled fears of chaos if he dies without a clear successor, but Israeli and Western officials hope his death may allow a chance to restart failed Middle East peace negotiations.

Israel and the United States have long accused Arafat of being the main stumbling block to talks and of fomenting violence in the four-year-old Palestinian uprising - charges he has denied.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said it was only because he could see nobody to talk to that he drew up his unilateral plan for withdrawing settlers from occupied Gaza and parts of the West Bank next year.

Israeli sources said senior officials discussed easing conditions after Arafat's death if there was a Palestinian leadership that looked as though it might be able to crack down on armed groups and restart talks.

"There are contingency plans for confidence building measures and they are likely to be applied once the situation is clear," said one political source. "If there's anarchy, you can't have confidence building measures."

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, visiting China, said Israel "would like to see a moderate Palestinian leadership that is taking the lead and moving towards a full implementation of the road map (international peace plan)".

But being labelled as too close to Israel could spell doom for any potential successor and Sharon ordered ministers on Sunday not to comment on Arafat or what might follow so as not to be seen as interfering.

Arafat, 75, remained in critical condition on Sunday as doctors puzzled over his illness.

JOSTLING FOR INFLUENCE

Palestinian politicians and factions are clearly jostling for position even as they try to avoid signs of an open power struggle.

Most of Arafat's powers have been taken over in the short term by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurie and former premier Mahmoud Abbas -- both seen as moderates ready to talk, but with scant popular support and none of the ex-guerrilla's charisma.

Qurie came under pressure from the armed factions spearheading the Palestinian uprising on Saturday to give them decision-making powers in a temporary unified leadership they want if Arafat dies. He did not say he had agreed.

Israel and the United States fear that Islamic groups like Hamas, sworn to destroying the Jewish state, could gain influence after Arafat over a Palestinian Authority that seeks a state only on land occupied since the 1967 Middle East war.

Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erekat said that since Arafat was alive it was inappropriate for anyone to talk of measures that might be put in place once he was dead.

"The Israelis are not showing any sensitivities or respect to the Palestinian people with such talk," he said.

Israel has occasionally eased closures - blockades on Palestinian-run enclaves - that it says are meant to stop suicide bombers, but which have crippled the Palestinian economy and are condemned by Palestinians as collective punishment.

The last truce by Palestinian factions endured just a few weeks in mid-2003 before collapsing amid violence. The ceasefire was designed to assist the US-backed road map, which has been stalled by continuing bloodshed.

One Israeli opposition politician suggested on Sunday that a good way of showing goodwill towards the Palestinians would be to allow Arafat's burial in Jerusalem, as he has said he wants.

But Israeli officials said there was no way the Palestinian leader could be buried in land Israel considers part of its indivisible capital. Israel annexed mainly Arab East Jerusalem after the 1967 war in a move not recognised internationally.

- REUTERS