Is Mugabe still likely to resign? Has he simply delayed the inevitable?

Confused by the coup that isn't a coup in Zimbabwe?

Forget those of us looking on from outside, even people on the ground in Harare must be baffled by today's events.

President Robert Mugabe was removed as leader of his Zanu-PF party but later did not resign as head of state as expected in a televised speech. He said he will 'preside' over an upcoming conference of the ruling Zanu-PF party next month.

Mugabe had been given an ultimatum to resign or face impeachment in Parliament.

What could be happening?

1 He is being eased out slowly

Right from the start of the military's takeover, the army leadership was careful not to stir up political sympathy inside Zimbabwe and in the region for the 93-year-old who has led Zimbabwe since independence. It was not a 'coup'. Mugabe and his family were 'fine' under house arrest. The targets were his 'criminal' allies. South African envoys visited him. As the Daily Telegraph wrote: "The military's intervention could swiftly lose support, and prompt condemnation from South Africa and the African Union, were the President's departure managed in an undignified way".

Other important players have since had the chance to show they want the despot gone. Hundreds of thousands of people protested and celebrated his apparent exit at the weekend. The ruling party has turned against Mugabe. The message: Opposition is much wider than the military. Could it be that he resigns at the conference from December 12-17 in a semi-dignified manner? The party committee has made sacked vice-president Emmerson Mnangagwa its nominee to take over from Mugabe.

2 He has managed to delay and survive (for now)

This could be essentially about military intimidation, about purging first lady Grace Mugabe's faction and the military ensuring that she does not succeed her husband as head of state instead of Mnangagwa.

The military could be allowing Mugabe to stay and propping him up, while under warning.

The generals responsible for the coup were seated next to him as he gave his speech and must have approved it. In it, Mugabe acknowledged some problems with the economy and his party.

He is probably using what leverage he has to stay on, hoping to delay and draw out more support for himself the longer it goes on, to battle through the crisis. He would want to protect himself and the position of his family for the future, or to negotiate an advantageous exit package.

Under this scenario, the military is focused on a key goal - maintaining its influence in the government. And the party has settled on a long-time Mugabe insider as next in line. The forces behind the ruler remain in place.

- Nicola Lamb is Foreign Editor of the NZ Herald

Is it wrong to worry that this crisis is entering a more dangerous stage? The army now seems to have taken Mugabe's side, against his own party, and against the evident determination of those huge crowds who flooded Harare yesterday.

— andrew harding (@AndrewWJHarding) November 19, 2017

Mugabe's speech reminded me of that terrible phonecall I made in my early teens where I didn't quite get around to dumping my first girlfriend.

— Hugo Rifkind (@hugorifkind) November 19, 2017

#Zimbabwe Weirdest non resignation speech heard in quite a while #Mugabe

— Alex Crawford (@AlexCrawfordSky) November 19, 2017

And Mugabe outfoxes everyone again. Everyone led to believe he will resign, state TV summoned to broadcast statement live and then, flanked by generals, he says he as president will preside over December party congress. Jaws drop #Zimbabwe

— Aislinn Laing (@Simmoa) November 19, 2017