Dissident Irish republicans have developed the capability to mount an attack on the British mainland, according to the latest security assessment.
Senior counter-terrorism sources confirmed the threat from dissidents attacking the mainland "now goes beyond an aspiration" and that they now possess the means to mount an attack across the Irish Sea.
Amid rising tension in the province and fears of an "Easter offensive" by dissident groups, police in Northern Ireland also warned that anti-ceasefire republicans were plotting to kill more police officers.
The increased threat from republican dissidents is certain to heighten security concerns during this week's build-up to the royal wedding in London on Friday, although there is no intelligence suggesting a specific plot related to the event.
In further evidence of growing confidence among extremist republican groups, a leading figure in one of the dissident groups' political wings announced that the Queen should be considered a "legitimate target" during her visit to Ireland next month.
The general secretary of the hardline Republican Sinn Fein party, Josephine Hayden, said she would have no problem with a sniper targeting the Queen. "You might say that she is just a little old grandmother," said Hayden, "but it is what she represents, what she symbolises that counts. She is a legitimate target."
On Saturday a group, styling itself "the IRA", claimed responsibility for the murder of Constable Ronan Kerr in Omagh this month.
The group, comprising former members of the Provisional IRA, vowed to embark on a bombing campaign. It is understood the new group includes veteran paramilitaries involved in detonating a bomb at London's Canary Wharf in 1996.
Hayden, who served four-and-a-half years in Limerick jail for possession of arms for the Continuity IRA, said: "[Kerr] too was a legitimate target because he put on a British uniform."
Intelligence officials monitoring dissident activity point to a growing sophistication of bomb-making techniques and a widening range of attack techniques as evidence of expanding capability. A senior intelligence source said: "We feel there is capability to attempt some form of an attack on Britain. Based on our assessment, it goes beyond an aspiration."
Dissident groups have recently deployed command-wire explosive devices, van-mounted weaponry, car bombs and vehicle booby traps, as well as more orthodox military equipment. Several individuals are believed to be under surveillance.
The head of MI5, Jonathan Evans, said last September, however, that dissidents posed a "real and increasing security challenge in Northern Ireland" and could be planning attacks elsewhere. According to MI5's Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, the official threat level is "substantial", meaning an attack is a "strong possibility".
Yesterday a man appeared in court facing charges in connection with the murder of Kerr. Gavin Coyle, 33, from Omagh was charged with possession of explosives, firearms and articles likely to be of use to terrorists. He was remanded in custody.
Attention has concentrated upon the Real IRA and the smaller but technically able Oglaigh na hEireann, which has improved its explosives technology over the past two years. A radical republican group known as Eirigi: for a Socialist Republic is planning to occupy Dublin's Garden of Remembrance 48 hours before the Queen is scheduled to attend a reconciliation ceremony there.
On May 5, Northern Ireland is braced for trouble to mark assembly elections and the 30th anniversary of the death of IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands.
THE SPLINTER GROUPS
Real IRA
Formed from a split in the mainstream Provisional IRA in October 1997, when the Provisionals' so-called quartermaster-general, Michael McKevitt, resigned over Sinn Fein's embrace of the peace process. Its first action was an attempted bombing in Banbridge, County Down, at the start of 1998. The group delivered the single deadliest strike of the Troubles by leaving a car containing 225kg of homemade explosives in Omagh. Two years later the group returned with a rocket strike on MI6 and an attack on the BBC headquarters in west London. It is the main organisation for IRA dissidents.
ONH
Originally believed to be a breakaway from the Continuity IRA, ONH, whose name is an abbreviation of Oglaighna hEireann (Irish volunteers), is now recognisedas being made up of members of both the RealIRA and Continuity IRA as well as recently recruitednew members. As much an umbrella group asa separate organisation.
The Continuity IRA
Set up as a paramilitary wing of the splinter political party Republican Sinn Fein, which split from Sinn Fein in 1986, "Continuity" refers to the group's belief that it is carrying on the original IRA mission to force Britain out of Ireland. Ex- Provisionals dismiss the group as amateurish and it has been overshadowed by the more militant Real IRA.
IRA
In what is thought to be their first public statement, a group made up of former Provisional IRA members announced themselves last week, taking responsibility for the murder of Ronan Kerr. In what represents a major split in Provisional ranks, the group claimed the mantle of the mainstream IRA, an assertion dismissed by Sinn Fein. The group is understood to have been recruiting heavily and could present a major increase in the threat of violence, with members bringing significant paramilitary experience.
- OBSERVER
Irish terror groups have 'capability to strike at mainland'
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