Iraq risks nuclear hit from Israelis

By ABRAHAM RABINOVICH, Herald correspondent

JERUSALEM - Israel will retaliate with nuclear weapons against Iraq if Saddam Hussein attacks it with non-conventional weapons, says an American military expert.

Such retaliation could eradicate Iraq as a state.

The assessment, made last week to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was published yesterday by the Tel Aviv newspaper Haaretz in an article written by its military analyst, Zeev Schiff.

The fact that Schiff, who has extensive connections within Israel's defence establishment, chose to report the assessment without discounting it is seen as adding credence to the claim.

Israel has always said that it would not be the first country in the region to use nuclear weapons.

But the increasing likelihood of an American attack against Saddam and the fear that he might react with biological or chemical weapons against Israel makes the nuclear issue relevant.

Israel is believed to have has as many as 200 nuclear weapons.

The assessment was presented to the senate committee by Dr Anthony Cordesman of , the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He is one of the foremost military experts in the United States.

Schiff wrote that the document was "presumably based, in part, on official administration assessments".

Apart from its Scud missiles, Iraq is also known to have been developing pilotless planes capable of reaching Israel with substantial payloads.

Despite the efforts of international inspectors, Saddam is believed to have been developing biological weapons in addition to the chemical weapons he has already used against Kurds within his own country.

Some reports say military-grade biological weapons can be almost as lethal as a nuclear bomb.

In a worst-case scenario offered by Cordesman, Saddam would try to attack Israel with biological weapons after the US had partly occupied Iraq.

If that happened and heavy casualties resulted, said Cordesman, Israel would certainly respond with nuclear strikes against Iraqi cities not yet occupied by American troops.

Cordesman said an initial Iraqi attack might cause few casualties, leading Israel to retaliate conventionally but warning that a further attack could draw a non-conventional response.

Israel is thought to have large stocks of chemical and biological weapons and is preparing for the possibility of biological attack by stocking up on smallpox vaccine.

No decision has yet been made for inoculating the population although officials' comments make it seem more likely.

A biological attack against Israel would seem to make little sense for Saddam since any contagious disease would spread to the Palestinian population and Arab states beyond.

But Israeli officials said such logic did not apply to a desperate leader who had already used non-conventional weapons against his own people.

Israel believed if the US did attack Iraq the Americans would try to stop any missile launches from western Iraq against Israel.

US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said last night the US had no choice but to take action against Saddam.

"We do not have the luxury of doing nothing.

"We believe the case for regime change is very powerful."

Saddam had twice come closer than the West had thought to acquiring nuclear weapons, she said.

The US has offered non-governmental organisations millions of dollars to set up humanitarian relief projects in Iraq and neighbouring areas ahead of military action against Baghdad, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

In a front page article, the London-based newspaper said the US State Department had called on such organisations to bid for $US6.6 million ($14.2 million) of funds to pay for at least five US humanitarian projects.

Once the projects - including facilities for medical care, shelter, water and relief supplies for refugees - were in place, international aid workers would be evacuated from the region ahead of any military action, and replaced by local staff.

Feature: Middle East

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