Iraq invasion can be avoided says US

WASHINGTON - United States Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says war against Iraq is "not inevitable".

He outlined three ways in which a war could be averted:

* Iraqi President Saddam Hussein leaves Iraq voluntarily and is replaced by new leaders who will abide by military law.

* Saddam Hussein leaves Iraq "involuntarily".

* Saddam Hussein abides by United Nations resolutions.

Mr Rumsfeld made his comments yesterday as US and British officials worked on a second Security Council resolution that would declare Iraq in material breach of its obligations to disarm.

If passed, the move could result in military action.

The resolution is expected to set a deadline for Iraq to co-operate fully with weapons inspectors.

The White House does not believe a second resolution is necessary, but British Prime Minister Tony Blair has said it is imperative.

In a Pentagon briefing yesterday, Mr Rumsfeld said a war was "not inevitable".

But as President George W. Bush had said, "Time is running out".

Detailing his three scenarios to avert war, Mr Rumsfeld said that if Saddam left, the new leadership would have to "adhere to and agree with and practise the basic principles that are involved".

Asked how realistic the prospects were, Mr Rumsfeld replied:

"Only time will tell."

In other developments:

* Weapons inspectors reported that Saddam, apparently buoyed by the scale of anti-war protests, had not met earlier promises of co-operation. Mr Rumsfeld called co-operation "the critical, pivotal, central question in the whole thing".

* The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Wellington issued new warnings against travel to Middle East countries. It urged New Zealanders to leave Kuwait, which borders Iraq, and avoid non-essential travel to Israel.

* A summit of the 114-nation Non-Aligned Movement in Malaysia is expected to denounce any US-led attack on Iraq. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad warned that an Iraq war would anger Muslims worldwide and could prompt an increase in international terrorism.

* Australian Prime Minister John Howard, a dogged supporter of Washington's policy, said the UN Security Council could never again be taken seriously if it did not disarm Iraq. Mr Howard also accused about half a million Australians who marched in anti-war rallies last weekend of giving support to Saddam Hussein and hindering a peaceful solution.

* The US continued to beef up forces in the Gulf region, sending more troops to join the 181,000 soldiers already there.

In New York, Britain's UN Ambassador, Jeremy Greenstock, said the draft resolution would force the Security Council to decide whether to authorise military action or to continue inspections if the Iraqi Government began to disarm.

The council strongly supports continued inspections.

Mr Greenstock predicted that debate over this "crunch decision" would go beyond March 1, putting back the US timetable for a possible war and ruling out February and its optimum weather conditions.

He said the US and Britain believed "a decision one way or the other has got to be made within weeks, not months".

UN diplomats say a US-British resolution still lacks the nine votes it needs to be adopted by the Security Council, and there is still no guarantee France, Russia or China - which favour continued inspections - would not veto a new resolution.

- AGENCIES

Herald feature: Iraq