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WASHINGTON - Iran's nuclear ambitions are motivated not just by a desire for regional supremacy but by a potentially devastating crisis in its oil industry, a researcher said.
Iran's image is of a muscular oil producer with plentiful reserves, but in fact it could soon face its own energy crunch owing to failing infrastructure and lack of investments, Professor Roger Stern at Johns Hopkins University said.
Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, the professor of geography and environmental engineering said Iran's oil problems have the potential to topple the clerical regime. "The regime's dependence on export revenue suggests that it could need nuclear power as badly as it claims."
Generous domestic subsidies for petrol mean that Iran's national oil company cannot make money at home and so needs to export as much as it can. But rapid population growth means that domestic demand is rising, while authorities have let their refineries and pipelines fray.
Despite being the second-biggest exporter in Opec behind Saudi Arabia, Iran has to import oil products like petrol to cope with demand. Since 1980, energy demand in Iran has risen 6.4 per cent, exceeding supply growth of 5.6 per cent. Exports have stagnated. For at least 18 months, Iran has failed to meet its quota for oil production.
The strong suggestion is that oil production is now falling.
- AFP
