Haniyeh’s killing, at a secure compound on July 31, was a stunning embarrassment for Iran’s security forces – but the country’s new reformist president has just formed his Government, and a conflict with Israel threatens to distract from his central campaign pledge of improving the economy.
Today, Iran’s hardline Parliament approved President Masoud Pezeshkian’s 19-member Cabinet, which includes both reformists and conservatives, a move that the new leader said represents his “consensus” approach to governing. In Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the most important overall figure in the regime.
During his campaign, Pezeshkian, unusually for Iran, focused on change. He called for greater engagement with the West, promised to address Iran’s spiralling economy, and also simmering public anger over the harsh enforcement of the country’s mandatory dress code for women.
Still, the election that brought him to power was fraught. Historically low turnout in the first round of voting in June forced the contest to a runoff, drawing out an electoral campaign that had already polarised and discouraged some voters.
But Iran’s domestic pressures are just one contributing factor to the “bind” the country now finds itself in, according to Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group.
“Their dilemma is that they don’t know how to respond without starting a war,” he said, adding that “doing something that everyone sees as symbolic doesn’t solve the problem” of restoring deterrence with Israel.
Immediately after Haniyeh’s assassination, which came just hours after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander near Beirut, the region went on high alert.
Israelis braced for a response, both from Iran and Lebanon, and the United States, a key ally of Israel, bolstered military assets in the Red Sea, Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf of Oman.
Despite Iran’s public statements vowing revenge, its private messaging was much more cautious. During meetings with leaders of allied militias, Iranian officials urged restraint – seeking to balance any show of force with the desire to avoid an all-out conflict.
The US Biden Administration also deployed senior diplomats to the region to contain the fallout, including a renewed push for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, where a war has raged for more than 10 months.
This week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shuttled between Israel, Egypt, and Qatar on a mission to pressure Israel and Hamas to agree to a US-sponsored proposal that would halt the fighting and see the release of Israeli hostages still in captivity.
The plan, which the Administration describes as a “bridging proposal”, would also allow for displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza under Israeli supervision, and includes a scheduled withdrawal of Israeli forces from major population centres there.
The negotiations, which remain tense and have so far failed to produce an agreement, gave Iran the opportunity to climb down from the more bellicose statements, analysts said, and take a wait-and-see approach to ceasefire talks while still considering a response.
In April, Iran retaliated against Israel for a deadly strike on the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, which killed seven people, including senior military advisers. It launched its first direct attack on Israel, firing hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israeli territory – most of which were intercepted, including by the US military.
This time, Iran will probably have to do something bigger or different, Brew said.
Iran’s mission to the UN also hinted that the response may take a different form.
“Perhaps when their eyes are fixed on the skies and their radar screens, they will be taken by surprise from the ground – or perhaps even by a combination of both,” the mission said in its statement.
“The timing, conditions, and manner of Iran’s response will be meticulously orchestrated to ensure that it occurs at a moment of maximum surprise,” the statement said.
