Paul Holmes: Iran's fresh voices not lost forever

It has been a hard week for President Barack Obama. He is being tested internationally. There are some tricky developments afoot which demand he moves carefully. As he does so, he is being written off in some quarters as a wimp, a diplomatic weakling.

He was slow to support the demonstrators in Iran. His strong words to North Korea appear to have been laughed at by the freaks who rule there. Think about Iran. Obama wants a new start with the regime. He does not want them to have nuclear weapons, but he appears to want to be able to speak to them without a megaphone.

A few weeks back, Obama stood in the Great Hall of the historic Cairo University. Cairo and its university produced so much of the thinking that began to shape the modern Arab world in the mid-20th century. Egypt led the way, Nasser was the hero. Egypt is the place to make the grand new statements of vision.

Obama extended a hand for a new start in the relationship between the peoples of the Middle East and the West. He was no wimp. He displayed a good understanding of Islam, but he told the packed hall that he believed in a set of unyielding principles. Among these are "the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed, confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice, government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people, the freedom to live as you choose".

Apart from Israel, throughout the Middle East, there is not a government that has not had trouble with each of these principles. Obama knows that. That is why he spelled them out. He was telling the Arab world who he is and who they are dealing with.

When it comes to Iran, he must be asking himself what exactly is he dealing with? Is this a revolution or simply an angry uprising? The crowds in the streets might be claiming the election was stolen, but how do we know if it was?

The head of state is the Ayatollah Khamenei. The state is a theocracy. One of the basic principles of Islam is honesty, as it is in Christianity. You would think Khamenei would be able to lie straight in bed. No significant fraud has been found. But, nevertheless, he wants to see his man as president of Iran.

So Obama and his people would have been pondering this. Nevertheless, the demonstrators erupted on to the streets, absolutely convinced they had been shafted, completely disbelieving official assurances to the contrary. And look at who the demonstrators are - urban, educated, sophisticated young people. And women. This week we saw the impossible: mullahs in the street with the protesters. There now seems to be widespread, massive rebellion.

The pictures of Neda Agha Soltan, the beautiful young music student, dying in the street, the blood pouring out of her and pooling on the pavement around her, were YouTubed to the world, and probably all around Iran immediately.

But if the Government is adamant the election was honest, and there is no proof it was not, what makes the millions who have demonstrated so sure they are right? Why have they erupted as they have, knowing the risks, knowing they will be shot at eventually?

I wonder if this is not some kind of generational division. The young people in the cities are simply angry that Ahmadinejad, the man they regard as an ignorant fool and an international embarrassment, will keep his job. One girl I saw, her face uncovered, said with passion to a camera, "I hate him!"

Perhaps there is a new class of young people in Iran, young people with internet and email, YouTube and Twitter, who long to be part of a modern, open world.

The Shah might have been cruel, but he did educate a generation of parents and grandparents of these young people.

The hysterical anti-Americanism of the 1979 revolution had its roots in the American-organised overthrow in 1954 of Iran's only democratic leader, Mossadegh. Mossadegh was demanding Iranians get a better deal from the company that ran the Iranian oil industry, Anglo-Persian, which later became BP. Anglo-Persian continued to plunder Iran. Mossadegh was determined. Churchill detested him. The British persuaded Eisenhower to unleash his forces of the night.

Mossadegh, a convinced and passionate democrat, was removed in a coup and the Shah was installed. The Iranians never forgave what happened to Mossadegh. In pictures of the demonstrations that brought down the Shah, thousands carried banners with Mossadegh's photograph on them, a quarter of a century on.

Could it be that now there is a new generation in the modern Iranian cities who want to move on, who are no longer in the thrall of the events of 1954 or even 1979?

Obama and his people will have wondered this. In his first statements condemning the ill-treatment and shooting of people exercising a human right to demonstrate, he was careful to stress that "the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran". Now he says: "We have seen courageous women stand up to brutality and threats and we have experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and painful, we also know this. Those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history."

It could also be that Obama is saying the minimum in the presumption that the demonstrations will die away naturally, that the regime will survive and will notice the US President was not toxic in his utterances during the disturbances. Obama might figure that the regime will reward him with a more productive dialogue on nuclear weapons. While Obama is inspiring in his set-piece oratory, he is not scary on the hoof. But neither was Kennedy in his first year.

When he met Krushchev for the first time in Vienna, in 1961, Krushchev wiped the floor with the man he regarded as a pup. A year later came the Cuban missile crisis. Then we saw the steel in Kennedy. Then we saw the war hero he was. Krushchev was humiliated, his power wasted in a foolish exercise.

Something will come along soon to test Obama deeply, as Joe Biden warned in the election campaign. Some boyo around the world will try it on, as the isolated, vainglorious North Koreans are on the brink of doing now. Hopefully we will see the metal that took Obama on that incredible journey to the White House.

Whatever this unrest across Iran is about, we have seen again what a force people power is to behold. And thanks to the courage of brave people who go to the streets to "have a say", and thanks to the cellphone and the internet and the irrepressible, uncontrollable new media, the voice of the Iranian people is being heard around the world. There's nothing a regime that looks like it's stuck in the Middle Ages can do about it in the long run. Not forever.