KEY POINTS:
I'm a foundation member of a group of "international worthies" established, like so many such groups, to advance the cause of peace, reconciliation and development.
In the wide toolbox of such groups, this group is different. It doesn't seek publicity, so it can meet in an unthreatening way with leaders to share experiences and offer advice.
It's hard to negotiate and give advice in public view. Compromise is best done in private and no leader wants to look pressured by outside interests. If our advice is turned down, no one needs to know.
Because many of us have made our mistakes we can, from time to time, say, "Don't do that, I tried it and it doesn't work!" Or perhaps we can suggest that the World Bank's cheap loan is good, or maybe if the savings made due to debt cancellation is committed into a special, audited account for education and health, the governments who are owed the money might just be more open to forgiving the debt.
And by the way, Aids is not a Western plot. Genetically modified food delivered free as part of famine relief is not poisoned, despite what some extremists say, and here's the evidence.
Or do you really need your own currency? Perhaps business and savers might be more confident if you link your currency to a more stable, regional currency or the euro or US dollar for a few years? Competition in communications just might elbow out corruption and deliver better results. World Trade Organisation and European Union membership may help benchmark internal reforms and encourage investments and jobs. Up to you, we don't get paid, we are not consultants, but we can review the many consultants' reports that litter offices unread.
Poor Tanzania, according to its past president, had more than 1000 visits a year from good people to audit and check on their aid money. In new democracies, we point out that the winner can't take all, the role of a loyal opposition is necessary and patriotic. But here's a big question.
Dictators hardly ever quit. They can't. They may be prosecuted or worse. Those who replace them may take revenge.
How do they live, who pays them when they retire or run? That's why many steal millions of dollars and park the money overseas for a rainy day. All the incentives and the hangers-on, and their needs, are to stay, fight it out, or replace themselves with someone they can control.
Here's the deal. What if someone went to a dictator, an evil murderer like Mugabe, or perhaps Milosevic before the Balkans war, and said, "Look, here's an offer; go into safe exile beyond prosecution, and this is the income you will receive for the rest of your life." This is how Idi Amin left Uganda for a life in Saudi Arabia where this monster died peacefully of old age.
The cost of getting a person like Milosevic out could have been just the value of a couple of missiles and bombs that rained down later on Serbia in their hundreds and where thousands were killed.
Safety from prosecution allowed Chile and Argentina to move to democracy. General Pinochet eventually allowed Chile the transition to democracy but insisted he was made a senator for life, giving him immunity. That worked for decades until he was too sick and old to prosecute.
Justice for the many murdered and tortured was ignored for 20 years, then the victims' mothers and brothers sought justice as they would be expected to.
I spoke once to a sort of Latin American equivalent of the European Parliament and recognised several villains. Then it dawned on me: it was all about political immunity for many of the members.
South Africa moved from the terror and trauma of apartheid by offering the guilty redemption through its Peace and Reconciliation Commission. But the guilty could not be forgiven unless they showed remorse and sought forgiveness.
This was the Christian genius of the South African experience. But eyeballing a dictator, knowing hundreds are dying and thousands will, what would you do, and what should we do? The balance of dealing with justice for the past victims, measured against the knowledge there will be many more if nothing happens, is a haunting prospect.
Now, before the conspiracy theorists start writing, this is not the policy of the group I'm working with. I don't have the stomach for this idea. I've spent my life trying to build up international law and institutions. It may reward evil behaviour, yet ... ?
* Mike Moore is a former Prime Minister of New Zealand and former Director-General of the World Trade Organisation.
