Michael Richardson: Gunboat diplomacy back in fashion

Following repeated warnings from the United States and its ally Japan about the steady increase and secretive nature of Chinese military spending, the US military plans to deploy three aircraft carriers and associated warships for manoeuvres next month off the American island territory of Guam, in the Western Pacific, which is being developed as a new hub of US sea, air and amphibious power close to Asia.

It will be the first time since the Vietnam War that so many US carriers have operated in the Pacific together.

Air Force planes and Marines will also take part in the exercise - one of three large-scale operations planned between June and August in the Pacific.

Two will involve mainly US forces. The third, to be held off Hawaii, is to include navies from at least seven other countries including Australia, Chile, Japan, South Korea and Peru.

US military planners and analysts are becoming increasingly concerned at China's programmes to counter the dominance of American aircraft carriers and their escorts in the western Pacific.

These flotillas are a key component of US global power, enabling Washington to position a maritime strike force almost anywhere in the world.

In Asia so far, there has been little to threaten the US giants and their combat planes. Just over a decade ago, when China fired ballistic missiles into waters around Taiwan to deter moves towards independence, US President Bill Clinton sent two aircraft carrier battle groups into the region to protect the island.

Would the Bush Administration do this now if a similar crisis erupted? The US assistant secretary of defence Peter Rodman gave an guarded answer when he appeared recently before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington.

"Today, we would calculate the operational challenges in light of new military capabilities and technologies China has acquired, just as we have always adjusted to new realities," he said. "But, while the precise response may not be the same, our ability and our will to meet our security commitments remain firm."

Other specialists on China's military modernisation provided the commission with more details about these capabilities, and their implications. They said that the newest generation of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) being deployed in southeast China opposite Taiwan might include highly accurate DF-21C rockets with a range of up to 1700km and similar weapons that could soon carry warheads for striking moving targets at sea.

These would be very hard to counter. A ballistic missile is fired in a high arc-like trajectory and travels at many times the speed of sound. Destroying it becomes even more difficult if it carries multiple warheads on separate re-entry vehicles capable of striking different targets.

Mark Stokes, a former US Air Force intelligence officer assigned to China and Southeast Asia, told the commission that assuming the Chinese military had the means of tracking and targeting ships at sea, "successful deployment of the DF-21C and extended-range SRBMs with manoeurvring re-entry vehicles could hold at risk US carrier battle groups intervening in a crisis".

He added that the new missiles and their manoeurvrable warheads, which can be guided on to the target in the last phase of their flight, could also hamper US air operations from Okinawa, north of Taiwan, and other bases in Japan.

China is reportedly adding up to 100 surface-to-surface missiles each year to its estimated force of 700 SRBMs and cruise missiles. It has been able to build this capability unchecked because the US and Russia are prohibited by the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty from fielding land-based missiles with ranges of between 500km and 5500km.

Instead, they must rely on cruise missiles carried by planes, ships and submarines to deliver warheads armed with conventional explosives over distances of more than 500km.

Roger Cliff, an analyst at the Rand Corporation, said China already had the most capable SRBM force in the world and, if it successfully developed a ballistic missile that could hit a moving ship at sea, this would give Beijing "a unique and unprecedented military capability".

Some Japanese military analysts believe that China will be deploying such weapons within the next four years.

Meanwhile, China's expanding submarine force is the key component of its sea denial strategy. Beijing is building four different classes of submarines, two nuclear-powered and two diesel. It is also due to take delivery this year of the last of eight advanced Kilo 636M conventional submarines ordered from Russia in 2002.

These will differ from the four Kilos bought in the 1990s as they will carry Russian-designed land-attack cruise missiles with a range of 300km, other cruise missiles that can strike ships up to 220km away, and torpedoes designed to travel through the water at around 200km/h.

Western experts rate the Kilo 636M as one of the world's most capable attack subs, especially when armed with anti-ship missiles and the so-called rocket torpedoes.

China is getting most of its foreign military equipment from Russia, with former Soviet states such as Ukraine providing some advanced systems.

Russia is evidently selling advanced arms and technology to fund its next-generation weapons development.

US analysts say Ukraine was the source of the Soviet-designed Shkval torpedo which uses the principle of hypercavitation to travel at very high speeds underwater and was designed as an anti-aircraft carrier weapon that could carry a high-explosive conventional charge or a small nuclear warhead.

Some years ago, Russia sold China four Sovremenny-class destroyers armed with one of the world's most capable anti-surface ship cruise missiles, the SS-N-22 (Sunburn), and follow-on missiles the SS-N-26 (Yakhont) and the SS-N-27 (Club) series. China has also bought more than two dozen Russian-produced Il-76 planes for transport, airborne warning and control and aerial refuelling of China's Russian-supplied squadrons of Su-27 and Su-30 multi-role fighters which can be used to attack shipping.

China is reportedly considering upgrading its long-range strike capability by acquiring Tu-22M-3 Backfire bombers from Russia. The Backfire uses a range of supersonic and subsonic precision-guided munitions that would greatly enhance China's ability to carry out sea denial or sea control operations.

Should Beijing get the Backfire bomber, US carrier battle groups and forward bases would face a significantly increased threat. With a combat radius of over 3200km, the Backfire could reach US bases on Okinawa and on Guam from China and, if operating from Myanmar, the joint British-US base on Diego Garcia atoll in the Indian Ocean. It could perform these missions without aerial refuelling.

China put 11 submarines into service last year and is expected to commission another five or six in 2006. With more than 50 Chinese submarines operational, and about half of them modern and highly lethal, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US and Japan to counter this undersea force.

The first two modern Yuan-class diesel submarines produced in China are expected to enter service this year.

They may incorporate air-independent propulsion systems that will enable them to stay submerged for a longer time and make them more difficult to detect.

US intelligence officials were caught by surprise when the Yuan-class boat first appeared in 2004. Mr Rodman told the commission that Washington had no prior knowledge of its existence.

He added that one thing was clear: China is no longer a Third World military and in certain areas it is becoming a First World force with the potential to compete militarily with the US and threaten the aircraft carriers that have long been the spearhead of America's global maritime power.