Fran O'Sullivan: Madam President - that will suit us

What if ... John Key's 'President Clinton' gaffe may well reflect what US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been thinking. Photo / Mark Mitchell

John Key will be able to claim his "President Clinton" blooper was simply prescience if Hillary Clinton does one day make a successful run for the White House.

Key's gaffe was understandable.

He had after all been playing host to the singular woman who would have won the Democratic presidential nomination if Americans had not been so seduced by Barack Obama's lofty rhetoric.

A woman who was out-campaigned by Obama, but clearly has in spades the executive managerial skills he lacks.

The spectre of a possible Clinton presidency inevitably came into play again after the Democrats lost their control of Congress.

Obama has been so focused on his own ideological agenda that he lost sight of the fact that Americans have more immediate concerns, such as the economy and their jobs.

The President has become remote from his countrymen. He has been too focused on Wall Street at the expense of Main Street. His grasp of detail has been found wanting.

And his seeming reluctance to use his political capital to personally forge cross-party consensus on vital issues to America's future prosperity vexes his supporters.

Clinton had to laugh off the Key gaffe.

But the "what if" question would have been running through our Prime Minister's mind. His background as a money-trader means he is used to running the odds.

He will not have done this openly. But within his kitchen cabinet and his advisory circle, the possibility that Clinton might make another run will have been measured.

The Democratic Party's grandees, its wealthy backers and Bill Clinton himself - the most popular politician in the US today - will also be calculating whether a president who has become disturbingly aloof since entering the White House can win again in 2012.

And it would be surprising if Clinton has not herself been thinking through these trade-offs during her march around Wellington's gusty waterfront.

Should she seize the advantage? Resign next year as Secretary of State and run against Obama for the nomination in 2012? Or, team up in an Obama-Clinton ticket for 2012 then make her own run in 2016?

Obama has accepted that this week's defeat was a "shellacking".

But it will take more than masterful rhetoric to come out on top in the battles that now loom with the Republican-controlled Congress on tax issues and healthcare reform.

I doubt that the Congressional defeat would have been anywhere near so overwhelming if Hillary Clinton had been president. She is simply too much of a seasoned political pro to have fallen into all the traps that the President set for himself.

The timetabling of her 17-nation Asian swing was a masterstroke.

It has been obvious for weeks if not months that the Democrats faced losing their majority in the House of Representatives.

By putting plenty of blue water between herself and Washington during the political carnage Clinton has made sure she is not a personal lightning rod for those discontented with Obama's performance.

And being half a world away from Washington means she cannot be put on the spot by the television networks over her own plans.

Enter the "Bill" factor.

When I interviewed the former President in London in 2004, he was adamant America would have a female president in his lifetime.

He was doing the spadework then for his wife. Judging by the role he has played raising money for the Democratic Party to contest the mid-terms, he will be in a very influential position when it comes to determining the main game.

Obama may have it within him to pull his presidency out of the morass.

But Hillary Clinton's performance will also be monitored.

The pundits will look for clues to see if she disagrees with Obama's domestic policies, particularly as they will now be moderated by the Republicans' increased power.

The pollsters will create their own bandwagon.

The Clintons came in for a bit of a moral drubbing during the presidential nomination battle. His tangle with Monica Lewinsky was a bit too recent.

But if the United States economy doesn't get out of the hole, Americans will inevitably begin asking whether another Clinton co-presidency would be such an alarming prospect.

She is one tough cookie. She is also intellectually formidable.

If her executive strengths could be supported by his greater political ability and charm it could be good for America.

And good also for New Zealand which got to know Bill Clinton well during his previous visits, and will now know Hillary Clinton well after her three-day visit as Secretary of State.