KEY POINTS:
Politics can be a harsh mistress. Australian Prime Minister John Howard, having presided over 11 years of uninterrupted prosperity during four terms of government, must feel he has nothing left to prove.
Yet that is just what he is being asked to do by a people who, in a relatively short time, have swapped contentment for restlessness.
So far, his efforts to show he still has plenty to contribute have failed to convince, and, increasingly, he looks incapable of staving off defeat in the November 24 poll.
Australians seem to view this federal election as about the years ahead, not the indisputably sound economic stewardship that Mr Howard has provided for more than a decade.
This is about fresh ideas, not the experience of a leader who, if he wins this election, will be about 70 when he hands over the prime ministership to Treasurer Peter Costello. On that count, Mr Howard is struggling. His announcement on the first day of the campaign of a $40 billion tax cut package failed to provide traction. Indeed, a subsequent poll showed the Labor Party's lead widening to an imposing 16 points.
It did not help that Labor responded with a similar tax sweetener, but it seems that in Australia, such enticements are seen as tired.
Tellingly, the $35 billion of tax cuts announced in the last Budget also failed to provide a polls boost. Given such sentiment, it is also unlikely that Mr Howard will find salvation in advertising designed to engender fear.
Television viewers have been bombarded with Liberal Coalition messages that depict a Labor government front bench laden with former trade unionists. In the current climate, that approach smacks more of desperation than inspiration.
There are also indications that Mr Howard has, to some degree, lost his instinctive feel for the concerns of Australians. State and territorial elections have suggested people increasingly see climate change as a key issue.
The Prime Minister, having refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, has only belatedly heeded the message. Mr Howard is also having to work hard to jettison the damage wrought by unpopular workplace relations legislation and Australia's involvement in Iraq.
Not the least of the Liberal Coalition problems is, of course, the fact that over the past year Labor has benefited from the calm and assured leadership of Kevin Rudd.
The former diplomat has eschewed the extravagance of some of his predecessors, while ploughing fertile ground in promising to make life better for working families. Much of what he says lacks detail, but, after 11 years of Mr Howard, it has the advantage of being said in a fresh, more youthful and non-alarming manner.
Even before Mr Rudd emerged, the Prime Minister was warning his party colleagues of the dangers of complacency. He recognised that governments devoid of ideas rarely survive long, even in the most comfortable of economic times.
Warning the electorate not to change a winning formula does not suffice. Mr Howard appears about to learn the cost of failing to act on that dictum. Equally, he seems about to pay the price for failing to surrender power at the right moment.
Knowing when to quit is, of course, among the most difficult of things for a successful politician. When you have seen off as many rivals as Mr Howard, the task becomes all the greater. His ongoing success, and his country's prosperity, caused him to dally. An electorate clearly in the mood for change is poised to confirm just how severely that hesitation eroded the Liberal Coalition's chance of winning this election. And to sweep away a leader who could, and should, have, enjoyed a more graceful exit.
