Editorial: Up, down ... now Gillard faces a fight

Julia Gillard. Photo / Getty Images

It must rank as one of the briefest of political honeymoons. Julia Gillard has fallen out with a significant slab of the Australian electorate in only a fortnight.

The great expectations that accompanied Australia's first female Prime Minister after she dumped Kevin Rudd in late June seem a distant memory.

Two weeks ago, at the start of the election campaign, a poll suggested her Labor Party had 55 per cent support. The same Sydney pollster said yesterday that Labor was now neck and neck with its Coalition opposition. Another poll, a couple of days earlier, found Labor with only 48 per cent support to the Coalition's 52 per cent. By any yardstick, the turnaround has been extraordinary.

In more ways than one, this tumble clearly owes much to Ms Gillard's ousting of Mr Rudd. The breathtaking speed and efficiency with which she claimed power seems to have nurtured, rather than negated, a sour aftertaste.

Like her Labour counterpart in New Zealand, Ms Gillard is learning that just as much trouble in politics can come from internal ructions as from external opponents. Central to her problems has been a series of leaks that have suggested she welched on a deal with Mr Rudd, opposed Labor's paid parental leave scheme, and dodged meetings of Cabinet's national security committee.

Most astonishingly, it has been claimed that Mr Rudd, when a junior Labor MP, was used by the former conservative government to leak material.

All this has focused attention on the former Prime Minister, who, from a hospital bed, has denied he is the source of the information. Nonetheless, he remains the most obvious suspect. It is apparent the leaks are from a source well acquainted with the inner workings of the Rudd Government. Mr Rudd employed a four-strong "kitchen Cabinet" for much of his most important decision-making. Few would know of its most confidential discussions, and Ms Gillard's input.

Whatever the source of the leaks, electorates are, invariably, repelled by party infighting. It suggests anything but effective and efficient government. When a party is in power, the damage is all the more difficult to repair.

It could also be that Ms Gillard is suffering from the brutal way in which she claimed the prime ministership. Nothing much is held back in Australian politics, but people may see a difference between everyday venom and vitriol and the way in which she breached the country's tradition of mateship.

It has also not helped Ms Gillard that she has failed to address fully the areas of policy difficulty - asylum seekers, climate change and a mining tax - that caused Mr Rudd's popularity slide. This has provided added ammunition for her Coalition opponent, Tony Abbott, who has done little so far except stay out of trouble and provide a steady and successful supply of sound-bites.

It could be that Mr Abbott, the second cab off the Liberal Party rank after the defeat of John Howard in 2007, simply finds himself in the right place at the right time.

But votes will not be cast until August 21. That gives Ms Gillard time to recover. She says she will now abandon stage-managed events and appeal directly to the Australian people.

"I'm going to throw that rule book out and really get out there," she said yesterday. In so doing, she will try to take advantage of the voter-friendly appeal and ability to communicate that were much mentioned when she replaced Mr Rudd.

Ms Gillard must convince Australians that she has the credentials to lead the country. As well, she must show that she is in control of the Labor Party, and that it can be counted on to operate competently and coherently. If she cannot, Mr Abbott may have easiest of strolls to victory.