Editorial: UK poll result far from predictable

David Cameron, leader of Britain's Conservative Party. Photo / AP

Opinion

Thirteen years of Labour Party rule in Britain has taken its toll. Indisputably, a desire for change is in the air. Yet the outcome of a general election on May 6 is by no means certain. Doubts linger about the capability and substance of the Conservative Party's 43-year-old leader, David Cameron. Polls show that voters rate the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, more highly on almost all leadership measures. They also suggest that a likely election outcome is that most unwelcome of circumstances, a hung Parliament.

By all the usual yardsticks, there should be no contest. Labour has involved Britain in unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, overseen a faltering response to the recession, and been riven by internal dissension. In a situation echoing the long-serving Clark Government here, many traditional Labour supporters say they are also unhappy about "nanny state" rules and regulations and the number of solo mothers and immigrants on benefits. Mr Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair only in mid-term 2007, is seen as solid and dependable, especially in economic matters, but devoid of charisma.

The Conservatives, however, have been unable to make the most of this most propitious of opportunities. In part, this is because they, like Labour, have been tarred by the ongoing scandal over fraudulent and inflated expenses claims that has encompassed members of both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. The beneficiaries have been minor parties, most notably the Liberal Democrats, led by Nick Clegg. They look most likely to play the kingmaker role in forming the next government if there is a hung Parliament. Part of the price for their support would undoubtedly be moves to terminate the first-past-the-post electoral system in favour of one based on proportional representation.

Many of the Conservatives' problems relate to the legacy of Thatcherism and the inexperience of the Eton-educated Mr Cameron. He has sought to replace his party's stuffy right-wing image with a brand of "compassionate Conservatism". He has also captured the popular mood by making "Vote for Change" his party's campaign slogan. Further, he has reclaimed the confidence of business groups, who flocked to Mr Blair in the heyday of New Labour. But he remains an unconvincing figure, particularly to those in constituencies narrowly held by Labour who will be pivotal to the election result.

Mr Cameron should be helped by the fact that, for the first time, Britain will have televised leaders' debates. The personalities of the Labour and Conservative leaders, as well as that of Mr Clegg, will become a matter of considerable importance, perhaps more so than their planned solutions for a struggling economy and enormous debt. Mr Cameron has developed an easy-going style. His informal "call me Dave" demeanour will contrast markedly with a more intellectual but decidedly lacklustre Mr Brown. Again, the echoes with the most recent election in New Zealand are palpable.

The three televised debates this month could prove crucial. This will be the first genuinely close election in Britain in decades, and no party wants to alarm voters. On the campaign trail over the next month, both parties are, therefore, likely to err on the side of blandness. That can only heighten the significance of personality.

The election will bring change, if only because a record number of MPs are standing down.

A few months ago, it seemed this would be accompanied by inevitable transition as New Labour's run came to an end. Mr Brown's determination and a volatile electorate has erased that predictability.

In the manner of such matters, however, the odds must surely remain stacked against him.