KEY POINTS:
For the past decade, Robert Mugabe has been the very model of the corrupt and imperious African ruler. He has presided over the virtual destruction of Zimbabwe's economy and the impoverishment of Zimbabweans, while ruthlessly repressing those alarmed by his accelerating eccentricities. Rigged elections were the final guarantor of a rule that extended from 1980, when the fight for independence was won. Until now, that is. The official results of parliamentary elections, which were finally announced yesterday, have dealt the octogenarian President a blow from which there is no recovery.
The new Parliament will be controlled by the Movement for Democratic Change, which won 109 seats to the 97 claimed by Mugabe's Zanu-PF party. This confirmed that even in rural Zimbabwe, where the redistribution of land taken from white farmers underpinned a longstanding popularity, Mugabe's grip had slipped. So clearcut was the defeat this time that there was no prospect of manipulating the result.
Mugabe's only recourse is a run-off in the race for the presidency. Official results are expected to indicate that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has failed narrowly to gain the required 50 per cent plus one vote. But victory for Mugabe seems unlikely. Not only is the tide of popular discontent running against him but Tsvangirai will be boosted by support from failed candidate Simba Makoni, who is thought to have taken about 7 per cent of the first-round vote.
Even if, against the odds, Mugabe retained the presidency, it would be an empty victory. He would have neither credibility nor clout. Most pointedly, he would have lost much of his power of patronage, the foundation for his longevity. But that is unlikely to dissuade him from fighting on. Talks aimed at easing him aside, possibly into exile, appear to have failed. Now, the talk coming from his camp is defiant. "Robert Mugabe is Zimbabwean. Born, bred in Zimbabwe. He has lived his life to work for Zimbabwe," said Harare's United Nations ambassador, Boniface Chidyausiku.
A presidential run-off would occur in three weeks. That would be a dangerous time for Zimbabwe. Intimidatory violence is the stock in trade for Mugabe and his henchmen, including senior figures in the security forces. The international community must stand up and insist that independent observers are present for the poll. Only then would something approaching a fair and peaceful contest be possible.
The international community must also be ready to help rebuild Zimbabwe, especially through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Mugabe's policies have devastated the three planks of the economy - commercial farming, tourism and mining - that once made the country one of Africa's most prosperous. The seizure of white-owned farms, and the gifting of many to the President's untrained cronies, has crippled agriculture. Tourism, meanwhile, has suffered from the political violence, which prompted revulsion around the world, while mining companies reacted as expected when a new law allowed the seizure of 51 per cent of their shares.
These self-inflicted wounds are reversible, even if some will take more time to heal than others. So is the curbing of the rampant inflation and the resurrection of a virtually worthless currency, further products of Mugabe's gross mismanagement. It would all be much easier if he was no longer a factor, if he realised what was best for Zimbabwe and was willing to relinquish any pretence of power. Zimbabweans yearn for change. The longer Mugabe hangs on, the longer their agony will be extended.
