KEY POINTS:
Earlier this week a senior United States commander in Afghanistan talked of significant successes in the war against the Taleban. Roadside and suicide bomb attacks, ambushes and other forms of intimidation were down 42 per cent in December-January compared with the same period a year ago, said Brigadier General Joseph Votel. Days later, his optimism proved absurdly premature. The storming of a five-star hotel in Kabul by a Taleban suicide squad signalled the war had entered a dangerous new phase that will test the resolve and resilience of the Nato-led forces in Afghanistan.
The assault, the Taleban's first against a Western civilian target, might not, in itself, have been especially significant. Only seven people appear to have been killed, including an American, a Norwegian and a Filipino. But the thrust into the heart of a heavily guarded city was rich in symbolism. This was the Taleban proclaiming that, despite some military reverses, it was not about to abandon its campaign to overthrow the pro-Western Afghan Government and expel foreign forces.
The attack was well targeted, along with being well organised. Staying in the hotel, with many foreign business executives and diplomats, was the Norwegian Foreign Minister. Oslo responded immediately by saying the assault would not deter Norway from its work in Afghanistan. That, however, is exactly what the Taleban calculates will be the fruit of its new tactic. Not without reason does it believe that the commitment of some European nations is frail. Constantly, the success of the Nato forces has been compromised by the unwillingness of the likes of Germany and France to meet requests for more troops, or to let their forces be deployed in Helmand province, the Taleban stronghold.
The Europeans lined up behind President George W. Bush to be involved in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This was a country that had not only provided a haven for al Qaeda but seemed ripe for democracy and reconstruction after its liberation from Taleban fundamentalism. Over time, however, the Europeans' ardour has sagged. Quelling the Taleban has proved a long-term proposition, a situation hardly helped by American distraction after the ill-considered invasion of Iraq.
In the past few years, Washington has vigorously sought more support. Some European countries have, however, become loathe to be too deeply involved in an increasingly fraught engagement. Their thinking is short-sighted. Afghanistan, more than Iraq, is pivotal in the war on terror. If the Taleban reclaim control, the country will again harbour militants. After much effort and no little bloodshed, nothing will have been gained. The British recognised this at Nato's summit in Riga last year, and their reinforced contingent has made significant inroads against the Taleban. But Macedonia and Bulgaria were the only other nations to offer more soldiers.
Afghanistan's importance was also recognised by the Baker Report, and President Bush has now acknowledged this by agreeing to send 3200 additional troops there. More still should be sent as the US withdraws from Iraq. Washington also has every reason to expect a more wholehearted commitment from its European allies. They will be tested by an increased number of bombings of hotels and restaurants frequented by Westerners. That must stiffen their resolve, not trigger a further deterioration of morale. The war will be won only if Nato has enough troops and these can be used to defeat the Taleban in their own strongholds. Anything less and Afghanistan will be a triumph for Muslim fundamentalism - and the world will be a far less secure place.
