Editorial: Serbs' revolution could spell peace

The joy in Serbia at the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic and his cronies is accompanied by relief in capitals around the world. The cunning manipulator of Balkan animosities has left a trail of blood throughout Bosnia and Kosovo and misgoverned his shrinking rump of Yugoslavia. Against all expectations, he finally went quietly and even, it might be said, democratically, acknowledging the verdict of voters.

He and his Socialist Party will make the most of that claim if he continues in Serbian politics as he threatens to do. In Western capitals, they would much prefer that he had fled the country in the face of the popular uprising against him last week. He might have found a safe haven from the international indictment for war crimes but at least he would have been out of the arena in which he could do more harm.

Even if he survives as a major player in the Serbian Parliament his stocks with the voters will not easily recover. Opinion polls this year have found his popular support as low as 25 per cent. In the end, perhaps, he realised that no amount of rigging of the ballot held on September 24 could save him. Even with his henchmen doing the counting he, or perhaps the Army, realised that any declaration in his favour could not stand up against the clear weight of public opinion.

He tried all his old tricks, declaring an indecisive result, inviting his main rival to a run-off ballot that would have been held yesterday. But the country's new President, Vojislav Kostunica, would not be drawn into a second ballot for Mr Milosevic to rig and instead ran the risk that street demonstrations could result in a crackdown under emergency powers. Brave crowds ignored that danger, storming the Parliament and state television studios last Thursday. On Friday, after 13 turbulent years, the "Butcher of Belgrade" gave in.

It was certainly a victory for democracy in Serbia. When people power triumphs like this, it cannot again be easily defied. Serbians have brought about a revolution that could be as significant as any of those in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe. Serbians will probably look back on it as the birth of their democracy. The world will have reason to celebrate it too if it brings a better climate to the Balkans.

Right now, the consequences for Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro - the latter still federated with Serbia - cannot be predicted with confidence.

Mr Kostunica is no less a Serbian nationalist than the man he has defeated, though we can hope he has a healthier view of the national interest and that his methods may be less ruthless. He says he will not force Mr Milosevic to answer charges before a war crimes tribunal at the Hague. Nor is he ready to agree to an independent Kosovo or see Montenegro go its own way. His first intention, he says, is to repair the relationship between Yugoslavia's two remaining republics and strengthen its sovereignty over Kosovo.

He warned the country to expect "many economic difficulties and political hardships ahead." At least some of his economic problems should be alleviated by the removal of sanctions and the provision of foreign aid. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is now likely to provide Serbia and Montenegro with the kind of assistance it has given the republics that have broken away from Yugoslavia, and the European Union has indicated it will start lifting sanctions to support the new Serbia.

Much may depend, though, on the new Government's approach to the Kosovo question. Kosovo Albanians were not joining the celebrations of the change in Belgrade. It has even been suggested that fighters for Kosovo independence would have preferred the demon Milosevic to a Serbian regime that might appear more reasonable to the West. Indeed it should be easier now to consider the interests and rights of Kosovo Serbs as well as Albanians in the future of the province.

The Serbian revolution has removed the most poisonous power in the Balkans and opened the possibility at last of peace in that corner of Europe. It is a moment to celebrate.

Herald Online feature: Revolution in Yugoslavia

Participate in our Herald Online forum

International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia

Serbian Ministry of Information

Serbian Radio - Free B92

Otpor: Serbian Student Resistance Movement