KEY POINTS:
According to conventional wisdom, Dimitry Medvedev's only place in history will be as an odd footnote. Russia's new President is said to be a puppet in the hands of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who hand-picked his successor when, as the country's constitution demands, he had to relinquish the
presidency after eight years. The power-hungry Mr Putin, it is said, will reclaim that position in four years. In the first few days of the Medvedev presidency, there has been little to disprove this idea. Mr Putin has filled the Government with loyalists, and Mr Medvedev has appointed three of the former President's closest aides to run his Administration. It may, however, be too early to start writing that footnote.
Mr Medvedev, a 42-year-old lawyer, represents a generational change in Russian politics. Not for him the traditional route to power through the KGB. Not for him a grim Cold War view of the world. He has fresh ideas, developed mainly during his time in local government in St Petersburg. These envisage a more liberal Russia, with a freer media and less state interference.
In speeches far different in tone than those of his predecessor, he has promised to focus on civil rights and the rule of law. "My most important aims will be to protect civil and economic freedoms," he has said. "We must fight for a true respect of the law and overcome legal nihilism, which seriously hampers modern development."
In sum, Mr Medvedev offers the welcome prospect of more Westernised domestic policies and far less sabre-rattling in foreign affairs. He must tread cautiously, however. The unprecedented "tandem" arrangement of government offers obvious potential for a power struggle that Mr Medvedev is currently ill-equipped to win. Constitutionally, the President is the most powerful man in Russia but Mr Putin has transferred much of that post's strength to the prime ministership. Mr Medvedev also knows the former President remains very popular. Russians see Mr Putin as the deliverer of increased economic prosperity and a strong man who reinstated their country as a major world power.
Mr Medvedev is, therefore, almost obliged, at least initially, to carry on Mr Putin's policies. This he has done. During the recent Victory Day parade in Red Square, for example, he made a veiled attack on the United States, suggesting its "irresponsible" foreign policy could lead to world war. But if he is to emerge as a leader in his own right, he will have to enunciate a different approach and develop a strong support base.
The West can help him. A generational change looms also in American politics, with Barack Obama the favourite to win this year's presidential election. He has already indicated a refreshing willingness to talk to other world leaders without terms or conditions. That marks a radical switch from the unthinking intransigence of George W. Bush's eight-year presidency. There is scope for a new spirit of co-operation between the United States and Russia in troublespots, including the Middle East, North Korea and, particularly, Iran, where the Russians have been a supporter of that country's nuclear programme.
Success in such endeavours would enhance Mr Medvedev's prestige by confirming to Russians that their country is a major international player. International security would be much improved.
Western investors would benefit also if the new President is able to rid Russia of the corruption and judicial abuse that has tainted much of its progress. Mr Medvedev deserves further encouragement there. If he pursues his stated aspirations, he could yet be the man to liberalise Russia. It is a step that country must take - sooner or later.
