KEY POINTS:
Already, obituaries on the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton had been written. Defeat in the New Hampshire primary by her Democratic rival Barack Obama was going to be fatal to her White House aspirations. According to some, she was too cold and aloof to be electable. Others said
she suffered from being part of the Washington establishment at a time when Americans relished the prospect of real change. Still others maintained the country was not yet ready for a first woman President.
Clinton, however, is now calling the shots following a result in New Hampshire that defied pollsters' forecasts.
But even if the former First Lady had lost the primary, it would have been a mistake to write her off. There was simply too far to go, and too many twists and turns to come, to be discounting someone with her political experience and expertise. Defeat in New Hampshire would undoubtedly have been a blow. The New England state appealed as a bastion for a senator from nearby New York espousing competence and hard work. But her problem was always the few days available to arrest Obama's momentum after the lead-off Iowa caucuses. The time was clearly well spent. New Hampshire saw a more authentic, less manufactured Clinton. There were even teary eyes at a press conference, albeit that this was probably more a reflection of her frustration at ongoing poll gloom.
New Hampshire confirmed that Obama's rhetoric and message of hope had a strong appeal to young people and independents. But the road ahead is still a daunting one for the 46-year-old Illinois senator, who is bidding to be America's first black President. There are now almost two weeks before the Nevada caucuses and a further week to the South Carolina count. Almost a further fortnight later, on February 5, 22 states will vote on Super-Tuesday, the event that will be pivotal in deciding the Democratic candidate for the November election. That timetable leaves Clinton plenty of time to consolidate her advantage, and for Obama to stumble.
Clinton has already indicated that she will subject her rival to more piercing scrutiny and criticism. She talks of drawing a distinction between "reality" and the "happy talk"of Obama, whose experience in politics extends to just three years in the Senate. There are dangers in Clinton's approach. She will be criticised for old-school politicking. But it will be to her advantage that she will not be the only source of this focus. Obama's rise means that all his policies and statements will be dissected for consistency, clarity and cogency. Any skeletons in his wardrobe are also likely to tumble out.
So far, there has been only harmless talk of youthful drug-taking. Minor inconsistencies in some policies, including gun control and healthcare, have also come to light. Getting a strong handle on his policies and beliefs will become an increasingly significant part of the primary campaign. Americans know little, for example, of his thoughts on the economy, an increasingly important issue at a time of housing downturn, tightening credit restrictions and rising inflation.
Throughout this process, Clinton must hold her nerve. She has cemented her position as the Democrat front-runner. Now she must guard against being seen as a divisive figure who, against all odds, could hand the Republicans another term in the White House. Inevitably, there will be upsets for Obama. At that point, Clinton's credentials as an experienced politician who is ready to lead will become especially important. She still has healthy opinion poll leads in many of the key Super Tuesday states, even if Obama has eaten away at them. The race for the Democratic nomination is still Hillary Clinton's to lose.
