KEY POINTS:
Responding this week to a well-timed poll on the world's trouble-spots, American foreign policy experts emphasised the problems posed by nuclear-armed Pakistan. More than half named it the country most likely to become the next al Qaeda stronghold, and a large majority considered it the nation most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists. That pessimism can only have heightened by the prospect of considerable instability following the resignation of former army chief President Pervez Musharraf in the face of an impending impeachment notice by the ruling civilian coalition.
A quick glance at Pakistan's history confirms as much. Three of the country's previous four military rulers have been removed from power by popular movements, but the politicians who followed have always failed to take advantage of the desire for democracy and economic advancement. They, in turn, have been deposed by the military on charges of corruption and incompetence. The chances of that recurring are high. The coalition government, which comprises the Pakistan People's Party and the Muslim League, was united only by a determination to remove Mr Musharraf. Substantial internal conflict now seems certain. Indeed, just a day after the President's departure, the two parties were bickering over the restoration of the judges he sacked.
The nation most concerned by this is the United States. Last November, the Bush Administration described Mr Musharraf, who came to power in a coup in 1999, as an "indispensable" ally in its campaign against terrorism. Unfortunately for it, the President's power base eroded when his parliamentary allies were defeated in February elections. This week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signalled support for the civilian coalition. But there will be much greater nervousness about Pakistan, especially the prospect of militancy taking stronger root.
Most immediately, the US will want continued support for its war on terrorism. Washington's hand has, however, been weakened by its adherence to Mr Musharraf at the expense of other relationships. Last month, a measure of assurance was provided by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who said his Government was committed to securing Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, where al Qaeda and the Taleban pose an increasing threat. Yet the coalition has also defied the US by seeking peace deals with the home-grown Taleban. It has been unsuccessful, and hundreds of Pakistanis have been killed in suicide attacks in the past few months.
Mr Musharraf's anti-terrorism stand won him billions of dollars in US military aid. But this became a double-edged sword when he failed to make the most of it. After nine years of his rule, the nation is fractured, with strong strands of anti-Americanism and fundamentalism. The civilian coalition has yet to prove even than it can exert influence over Pakistan's generals and the powerful intelligence service. Pakistan is bound to be more unpredictable, yet the US will expect more of it, given that both candidates for the White House say they will send more troops to Afghanistan.
The best chance of pulling the country together vanished when Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by the Pakistani Taleban last December. The ruling coalition's task is immense, given political antipathies, tribal divisions, a widening polarisation of society and a sickly economy. There is no sign that it has a unified approach to combating militancy or implementing social, economic and education reform, the real hope for a stable future. The international community can only hope that Pakistan starts down that path.
