Editorial: Labor's axe slashes a way to victory

Opinion

New Zealanders always view a new Prime Minister across the Tasman with a degree of understandable apprehension.

The importance of Australia as a trading partner and our common security worries mean good relations at the top level are vital.

Yesterday, we could be forgiven for being even a little more nervous because of the breathtaking speed with which Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd.

However, there appears little reason for concern. In terms of transtasman relations, Ms Gillard is likely to follow the same approach as her predecessor.

The main downside is that, in the immediate future at least, New Zealand is unlikely to feature high on her list of priorities.

First, she has an election to win. Her elevation has come purely because of the plunging fortunes of the Labor Party.

For most of the time since his election in November 2007, Mr Rudd has ridden high in opinion polls as one of the most popular Australian Prime Ministers of modern times.

But recent polls showed his Government running neck and neck with the Opposition. In a remarkably short period, Mr Rudd had alienated not only much of the electorate but, fatally, most of his own party.

On a popular level, two of Mr Rudd's policies counted hugely against him. The first was his decision to shelve an emissions trading scheme.

Many Australians believe that, as a matter of principle, their country should, albeit belatedly, be playing its part in combating climate change.

Mr Rudd erred in vacillating over what he once described as the "greatest moral challenge of our time".

He also earned opprobrium for proposing a tax on mining profits that was harsher than those found in other developed resource-rich countries.

West Australians, in particular, feared a loss of jobs.

One of the initial strengths of Mr Rudd, a career diplomat, was that he claimed the Labor Party leadership without being tied to any faction.

The tradition of Balkanisation that has condemned Labour to long periods in the wilderness was foreign to him.

In practice, this freedom translated into something approaching a presidential style of government.

Gone was the painstaking practice of consulting with factional bosses, trade unions or even Cabinet ministers before deciding policy. Power resided in the hands of a four-strong "kitchen cabinet".

On the upside, this enabled Mr Rudd to react quickly to the global economic downturn. But it also prompted some poor decision-making.

And his conceit left many bruised egos among his ministers and the party factions. He was safe as long as his personal popularity remained high. When this plummeted, he found himself without a support base.

Ms Gillard, a former lawyer schooled in the Labor tradition, was, as Deputy Prime Minister, part of the "kitchen cabinet". Until this week, she was loyal to Mr Rudd.

In the end, factions within the party gave her little option but to challenge. They saw her as warmer, more voter-friendly, stronger at implementing policy and a better communicator than the bookish Mr Rudd.

They calculate that this, and the inevitable honeymoon period that Australia's first female Prime Minister will enjoy, should be enough for Labor to retain power in an election scheduled for this year or early next.

Much will depend on Ms Gillard's ability to sort out the policies that led to Mr Rudd's demise. She also presents ready avenues of attack for the Opposition.

What, clearly, she does not lack are a strong power base and a willingness to consult. Therein lay the fatal flaws in Mr Rudd's singular approach to government.