KEY POINTS:
Setting the scene for this week's Pacific Islands Forum leaders' summit in Niue, Helen Clark did her best to play down the importance of Fiji's stalled election process. This should not distract Pacific leaders from other pressing problems, the Prime Minister said. That is sure to be a vain hope. The decision by Fiji's self-appointed Prime Minister, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, to renege on a promise made to forum leaders last year to hold free and fair elections next March guarantees Fiji will dominate the meeting. So it should. Commodore Bainimarama's regime is showing an ever-greater willingness to stifle debate and dissent. This must be denounced and responded to as strongly as possible.
Another strand of thought underlay Helen Clark's comments. "Obviously, nothing was meant sincerely last time and it is very difficult to deal with such people," she said. Therein lay a hint of weary resignation and a suggestion that the international community was near its wits' end in trying to cajole Commodore Bainimarama into quickly restoring democracy. It was only 12 months ago that Helen Clark was promising to "keep Fiji's feet to the fire", and protesting strongly against Commodore Bainimarama's attendance at the forum summit in Tonga. Now she wants him "to turn up, look us in the eye and explain himself".
He has said he will not turn up, blaming New Zealand for its assumed refusal to let him attend post-forum meetings in Auckland that Pacific leaders have arranged independently of our Government. Helen Clark suspects this is an excuse to avoid the forum, and she is probably right.
Yet members, with the exception of New Zealand and Australia, greeted him meekly at last year's forum. Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare went so far as to describe Fiji as "family" and said it needed "our understanding and assistance to bring it back into the fold".
Subsequently, South Pacific foreign ministers made no progress when they visited Suva to seek a pledge that would see the election schedule reinstated. They concluded that, despite the regime's insistence on the need for electoral reform, there was no practical impediment to holding a poll in March. Only will was lacking.
Progress at this week's summit also seems unlikely. Commodore Bainimarama knows, as Robert Mugabe and other despots know, that - military intervention aside - there is only so much the international community can do to force their hand. Economic sanctions and travel bans matter little to regimes unconcerned with their citizens' wellbeing.
Commodore Bainimarama initially bowed to an ultimatum from the European Union and agreed to hold elections by March and to respect human rights. The carrot was the EU's $300 million-plus in aid, which is especially important for Fiji's sugar industry. Subsequently, however, he has been prepared to see that aid suspended, no matter the harm to the Fijian people.
New Zealand has also sought to exert pressure by exploring the possibility of Fiji's imposing Army being barred from United Nations peacekeeping operations. Payment for this role is a significant revenue-earner for Fiji. The initiative has, unfortunately, come to nothing, presumably because the UN can ill-afford to lose the Fijian contribution. Commodore Bainimarama has used every opportunity to gloat about this failure - and his apparent untouchability.
Part of his strength has sprung from the fatalism of the Fijian people. But if there is a cause for optimism, it lies with developments in Suva. Three Labour Party ministers have pulled out of the Government. The stronger the international pressure, the greater the encouragement for further stirring of the democratic urge. That is why resolve, not resignation, must continue to dominate New Zealand's dealings with Fiji's military regime.
