KEY POINTS:
President George W. Bush's disengagement from the Middle East peace process at the very time centrist politicians held sway in Jerusalem was an obvious blunder. Now, in the wake of Israel's general election, it appears even more unfortunate.
The inconclusive result, following a clear swing to the
right, diminishes substantially any prospect of his successor's push for peace bearing fruit. Not only must President Barack Obama now deal with a splintered Palestinian leadership but he finds Israel split and struggling to form a workable government.
The most seats in the Knesset were won by Tzipi Livni's Kadima Party, which appeared headed for defeat before overseeing Israel's December offensive in Gaza. But Kadima won only one more seat, 28, than Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud opposition in the 120-seat Parliament.
Most tellingly, Avigdor Lieberman's ultra-nationalist party, Yisrael Beiteinu, surged to 15 seats, making a right-wing coalition government the most likely outcome. Ms Livni could not cobble together a coalition administration after the scandal-ridden Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to step down last year. Her chance of doing so now seems even more remote. President Shimon Peres will probably give Mr Netanyahu the first chance to form a government.
The election result provided a snapshot of the fractured nature of Israeli society. The once-dominant centre-left Labour Party trailed in fourth, with just 13 seats. Much of its support lies with long-standing Israelis who, after decades of conflict, want to secure peace.
Their influence has faded as newer, more hard-line immigrants, many a product of the breakup of the Soviet Union, have entered the country. They have found a champion in the Moldovan-born
Mr Lieberman, who, among other things, wants Israel's Arab population to have to swear an oath of allegiance to the Jewish state or lose their citizenship.
Israel's system of proportional government guarantees this fracturing is reflected in election polls. The only caveat on pure proportionality is a qualifying threshold of 1.5 per cent of the vote. Originally, this was just 1 per cent. The failure of this system to produce stability has undermined the peace process. It also means there will be pressure for electoral change within Israel, perhaps to something more akin to mixed-member proportional representation.
The President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, has taken a remarkably sanguine view of the election. "In whatever form, the Government, once in power, will ultimately end up with responsibility, pragmatism prevailing," he said. It is hard to share his optimism.
Only Kadima has embraced the two-state solution with the Palestinians and the peace "road map" sponsored by Washington. Mr Netanyahu opposes that strategy and wants to expand existing Jewish settlements on the West Bank, leaving the Palestinians with self-governing enclaves.
Any coalition government involving Mr Lieberman, who says the Hamas Government in Gaza will have to be "toppled", would practically extinguish any chance of a peace settlement. Increased friction would also strengthen Hamas as the voice of Palestinian nationalism.
President Obama's first task should be to seek to persuade Ms Livni and Mr Netanyahu to form a government of national unity. This is likely to fall on deaf ears, so he will probably be left to cajole a right-wing Israeli government into a more moderate policy towards the Palestinian Authority, while at the same time seeking a reconciliation between Mr Abbas and Hamas. Only if, against the odds, this is achieved will a peace settlement become a viable proposition.
