KEY POINTS:
One week out from the United States presidential election, everything points to a victory for Senator Barack Obama, the Democrat nominee. So comfortable is his position that the euphoria in the Republican camp following its convention in early September seems a distant memory.
Then, the party nominee, Senator John McCain, and his choice for Vice-President, Sarah Palin, had a slight advantage in opinion polls and appeared ready, against the odds, to mount a strong challenge for the White House. In the succeeding weeks, however, the financial crisis and the crumbling US economy have conspired to undermine the Republican campaign at every turn.
The upheaval has been most damaging in the way in which Mr McCain has been tarred with the policies of President George W. Bush. The Arizona senator, a maverick in many ways, may not have thwarted attempts at financial market regulation to the same degree as the two-term White House incumbent, but he shares the same instincts at a time when Government intervention has become the rule. He also shares the same Republican tag.
The link has been made repeatedly by Mr Obama. The Democrat has also pointed to the Clinton Administration experts on his team, and the prospect of a return to budget surpluses. Mr McCain's attempts to divorce himself from the Bush Administration have been unsuccessful, so much so that Mr Obama has as much as a 10 percentage point lead in polls that ask voters whom they trust to improve the economy.
Overall, the Democrat appears to hold a seven- to eight-point advantage, and a state-by-state lead that, with something to spare, will secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. This was always the most logical outcome. The Bush Administration's legacy, even before the financial tsunami on Wall St, was to be a forecast record budget deficit in the 2009 financial year. The President's obduracy had also led to embroilment in a disastrous and costly war in Iraq. Overcoming such obstacles would be extremely difficult for any Republican ticket.
In some ways, however, the party did not help itself. Pitching Mr McCain, a 72-year-old, against a 47-year-old would work only if Mr Obama could be exposed as inexperienced. That has not been the case. Indeed, the age difference and the need for "a generational change" were key factors in Mr Obama's endorsement by retired General Colin Powell, who served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and later as Secretary of State under Republican presidents.
The delivery of General Powell's backing has been one of the telling moments of the campaign, the more so because he also criticised Mr McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate.
"I don't believe she's ready to be President of the United States, which is the job of the Vice-President," said General Powell. This further flattened the fizz that has surrounded the first-term governor since her unexpected elevation. Increasingly, the focus has been on the inexperience and flimsiness of the populist appeal of the self-confessed "hockey mom", especially given Mr McCain's age.
That, in turn, has led to valid questions about his judgment in opting for a vice-presidential candidate so devoid of qualification. The financial upheaval has only reinforced that criticism.
Mr McCain's campaign could yet be rescued. Most obviously, a terrorist attack on the US would play to his strength, burnishing his military and foreign affairs credentials. Indeed, perhaps nothing else would suffice, given that the financial crisis has subsumed even unspoken questions about whether the US was ready to elect a black President. That it seems ready to do - and decisively.
