KEY POINTS:
Theories of who or what is to blame for the disaster of the Victorian bushfires have been spreading almost as fast as the fires themselves. They include arson, faulty powerlines, insufficient warning, global warming and green policies to limit burning off and thus make the Australian bush much more dangerous.
Of all these explanations the first has had the most attention with headline-grabbing statements like that from the Australian Prime Minister who said those who set the fires were guilty of nothing less than mass murder. No doubt he was right and he certainly reflected what many people were thinking and feeling. It is only natural for people to try to explain such a disaster and, if possible, to call whoever was responsible to account.
But arson is hardly a sufficient explanation for the immensity of what happened on Black Saturday. Only one person has been charged and that for a fire away from the epicentre of the disaster, albeit one that killed 21 people.
Other attempts to apportion specific blame to specific people and institutions are likely to be equally unsatisfactory whether they be complaints about insufficient warning or a broken powerline. Of course such things can have an influence on how a disaster such as this unfolds. But the deeper question is about the effect of climate change and how people relate to the environment.
On the one hand there is the obvious explanation that southeastern Australia is drying out. On the other is the allegation that the fires were much worse than they needed to be because of green regulations that prevent the fire service and homeowners conducting protective burn-offs in the cooler months to reduce fuel in the bush.
Renowned Australian environmentalist Tim Flannery wrote in the Guardian that the long, wet and cold winters of his boyhood had vanished years ago and a new, drier climate had established itself. Certainly the 2009 fires seem even worse than either Ash Wednesday or the previous benchmark for bushfire horror, Black Friday 1939.
On Black Friday the temperature reached 45.6C in Melbourne and 71 people lost their lives. On Ash Wednesday the temperature peaked at just over 43C and the fires killed 75 people in Victoria and South Australia. But this month, the temperature has been much higher at a record 46.4C and the fires so much more deadly with at least 181 dead and possibly 300 or more.
Compelling as these numbers are they do not tell the full story. In 1939 the fires burned between 1.5 million and 2 million hectares, four or five times more land than the fires of Ash Wednesday or Black Saturday.
There must have been some other reason and increasingly, as last week wore on, people began to point the finger at the green movement for regulations designed to protect the biodiversity of the bush by restricting burn-offs. It was obvious, the argument ran, that the 2009 fires were more deadly than their predecessors because nothing had been done to reduce the fuel in the bush.
The fire authority's advice on how people could protect their homes might have been good at another time, but this year it seemed pathetically inadequate given that the fires were burning with extra ferocity.
Critics of these regulations have a point which needs to be addressed with some urgency. The bush is more densely populated now with a wide fringe around Melbourne occupied by lifestyle blocks and there is no likelihood that that will change.
Worthy though the green objectives might be, they need to be balanced against the interests of people who should be allowed some latitude to reshape their environment for the own protection. Unless this is done we can expect bushfires of the future to be even worse.
New Zealand's Red Cross and Salvation Army are accepting donations for those affected by the fires in Victoria.
Red Cross: Donations can be made by visiting redcross.org.nz, calling 0900 33 200 to make an automatic $20 donation, sending a cheque to Australian Bushfire Appeal, Red Cross House, PO Box 12140, Thorndon, Wellington, 6144, or by visiting any Red Cross service centre.
Salvation Army: Donate online at salvationarmy.org.nz or post to The Salvation Army, PO Box 27001, Marion Square, Wellington, 6164.
