KEY POINTS:
Last week, Fiji's interim Prime Minister, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, ordered the powerful Council of Chiefs' offices shut and suspended all its future meetings.
The council, a 55-member constitutional body of hereditary chiefs and prominent indigenous citizens, is charged with such functions as electing the president, vice-president and some senate members.
For the first time in the country's history, the council last week rejected the President's nominee, Ratu Epeli Nailatikau, for vice-president, a position which became vacant after Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi resigned following the December 5 coup.
Bainimarama lashed out at the Council of Chief's rejection - on the grounds that Nailatikau was a part of the "illegal" administration - saying they were putting their personal interests above the national interest. He then ordered the closure of the council's offices.
News reports say that the Army has been keeping a close watch on some of the council members.
This was the chiefs' first chance to make their collective presence felt on the political firmament since Bainimarama took over the reins.
Their rejection of the nomination was not wholly unexpected. It was a confrontation waiting to happen.
Unfortunately for Fiji, it came as things seemed to be taking a turn for the better after last month's Pacific Forum of foreign ministers, held in Vanuatu.
There has been a thaw in New Zealand and Australia's rigid, isolationist approach to the problem in Fiji since last December and a working group of regional leaders, officials from New Zealand, Australia and Fiji and nominees of the interim administration was formed to work on the recommendations arising from the Pacific Forum.
Many of the recommendations found favour with the Fiji Army, including the possibility of holding elections earlier than 2010.
Last week's development may not in itself have a bearing on this process but it threw up a dustcloud of uncertainty on Fiji's socio-political landscape, because it is unlikely that members of the Great Council of Chiefs - accustomed to the trappings of power given to it by the British in 1876 and then institutionalised by the country's constitutions and a multimillion-dollar taxpayer-funded annual grant - will continue smarting under this huge snub for long.
Many chiefs have found their way to powerful positions in the statutory bodies, are wealthy, and still wield influence over their people as they ride around in their expensive four-wheel-drives known in Fiji as ratumobiles.
The interim administration, however, does not believe the chiefs have the clout of past years.
Bainimarama told me that his Administration did not see any possibility of an indigenous backlash.
He said the people had seen through their corrupt chiefs and pointed out examples where people had defied chiefly orders to oppose his coup by not participating in protest marches, something previously unheard of in Fiji's hierarchical society.
After last week's developments, the Army doesn't seem to be so sure.
After the council's offices were closed, some of the chiefs planned to meet elsewhere, but reports said the Army soon moved in to stop that happening.
The Army also took in a prominent council member for questioning,
Colonel Pita Driti, hitherto the Army's silent strongman, became vocal last week and imposed orders prohibiting the assembly of people anywhere in the country.
That makes it illegal for the chiefs to address their people in public without police permission.
It is unlikely the chiefs will be able to take any action in haste, especially with public meetings banned.
This may be a good time for them to reassess their hold over their territories, for there is no doubt that their support base has been substantially eroded.
Whether they are able to galvanise support among their people on ideological platforms such as respect for traditions of the chiefly system, or the fact that this was yet another unconstitutional action, is questionable.
The only thing that might possibly fan a popular uprising is if the economic downturn continues - people are having their wages cut and have been losing their jobs since the coup - and the interim Government fails to come up with tangible results in its clean-up operation and takes corrective measures.
A perception of widespread economic distress would be a far more opportune time to sow the seeds of a mass movement fuelled by ideological and emotional sentiments.
That is the kind of climate the chiefs would find worth dying for.
