Andrew Austin: Heavy wounds likely to be inflicted on dominant party

Fifteen years after apartheid ended, South Africa is again facing a watershed general election.

The ruling African National Congress, which had to quickly change from liberation movement to government in 1994, has a new leader and new challenges it needs to face if it wants to keep the support of its loyal, but impatient, black following.

There is no doubt that when the country goes to the polls tonight NZT, the electorate will record an overwhelming vote in favour of the ANC continuing to govern.

But the victory will not come without some heavy wounds being inflicted on the party which has lost its way a bit in recent years.

The official opposition, the largely-white Democratic Alliance, has gained some traction in the townships thanks to its Xhosa-speaking charismatic leader Helen Zille and it is expected to do okay - with about 16 per cent support. Then there is the new party on the block, the Congress of the People (Cope), formed by disgruntled supporters of ousted ANC president Thabo Mbeki. While Cope - polling 15 per cent - simply does not have the numbers to unseat the

ANC, it will cause severe dents in some former ANC provincial strongholds.

The big difference this time around is that this ANC is not the same organisation that Nelson Mandela guided to victory in 1994.

During apartheid the ANC, with its coalition partners the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), operated effectively as a broad church of opinion, united in its opposition to the evil force of separate development.

Under the harsh light of democracy and freedom of expression, the fundamental ideological differences and cracks started appearing. It took a living legend - Mandela - to keep the party together. When he left office and the more autocratic Thabo Mbeki took over as ANC leader and South African President, a split in the party was inevitable - it was just a question of when.

The left wing SACP and Cosatu felt the party was moving away from its liberal roots, while the party's more centrist elements realised that the country needed to be more moderate to keep the economy stable.

It all came to a showdown between Mbeki and his former deputy Jacob Zuma, a man ironically chosen because Mbeki thought he would not be a threat. Zuma won. Mbeki was sent to the political wilderness and his supporters, the centrist core of the party, left to form Cope, the first truly multi-racial threat to it.

So now South Africa, which has one of the fairest constitutions in the world, is at a crossroads.

Zuma, who many people believe should be in jail for corruption and possibly even rape, is set to become president and have the power to change the course of the country. Even more serious, he will have the ability, if his party wins a two thirds majority, to change the constitution.

Zuma has denied that this is his agenda, saying the history of the ANC in power shows that it has resisted tampering with the constitution.

And of course, his justification for pressure being brought on prosecutors to drop corruption charges against him is that the case was a political smear by opponents like Mbeki.

But that is in the past. Zuma now has the opportunity to forge a new future for the country. The immensely popular leader with grassroots supporters now has to win the hearts and minds of the disillusioned black middle class and the marginalised white community if he wants keep South Africa's international reputation intact.

Andrew Austin is the Herald's chief reporter and was a journalist in South Africa for 14 years.